Afghanistan, foreign | Afghanistan connoisseur: – The victory may have come as a shock to the Taliban

He refers to a statement by one of the founders of the Taliban movement, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in which he said that the movement achieved an unexpected victory in Afghanistan.

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“I think they’re scratching their heads about how to deal with this,” says Strand.

Within a week, the Taliban went from controlling a handful of Afghan provincial capitals to moving to Kabul and forcing the country’s political leadership to flee. Strand believes that rapid progress gives the Taliban a difficult task.

The political leadership, which is in peace talks with the Afghan government in Qatar, claims that it wants to form an Islamic state in which women have the right to education, the ability to work, and the wearing of the veil instead of the burqa.

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You must maintain discipline

The gang that came to Kabul mostly consisted of local warriors. They belong to a much stricter society than is imagined in Qatar. Getting everyone to respect political statements from the administration will be difficult, Strand says.

The Taliban has managed to maintain great discipline among its fighters over the past year. No shots have been fired at Western forces since they began withdrawing from the country, and the withdrawing Western diplomats and aid workers have largely been allowed to go in peace.

But in recent weeks, many new warriors have joined the movement, which may be less willing to follow the orders of the political leadership.

In parts of Afghanistan they say fighters should not enter other people’s homes or enrich themselves with others. The test, Strand says, will be whether they have solid intent and their willingness to punish abusers.

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political vacuum

The Taliban is moving into what the researcher described as a political vacuum. President Ashraf Ghani left the country on Sunday. Strand believes that no one has the authority to lead a dialogue with the Taliban.

– There was a plan for a joint transitional government, but suddenly the Taliban were sitting with all the cards. He is asked how they choose to play with them, and whether they want to take full control, or form a transitional government, he says.

The movement also controlled large parts of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. However, they may have been stronger on the ground now, as northern Afghanistan was not largely under Taliban rule at the time. In the past week, they have captured important northern cities such as Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz.

Strand is amazed that the Taliban, which is seen as a movement based on the Pashtun people, has been able to gain control of these regions whose populations consist mainly of Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras.

– Maybe it’s more about them not trusting the government anymore. It is first and foremost the political breakdown that occurred here, he says.

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Taliban: The war is over

The Taliban has now declared that the war is over. There have been fairly continuous wars in Afghanistan since the late 1970s, with two major foreign interventions: the Soviet Union occupied the country from 1979 to 1988, and the United States with the Allies from 2001 to 2021.

The continuation of conflict in the country depends on a number of different factors.

– It depends on the behavior of the Taliban and on those who have fled now. There are warlords in Uzbekistan, Pakistan and India. If none of these are invited, they can form a military opposition. We simply have to look at it in the next few days, says Strand.

The West must not abandon Afghanistan

Strand believes it is important to maintain pressure on the Taliban from the West to deliver on their promises and form an inclusive government. But it also points to something else:

– The West should not abandon Afghanistan. Before this happened, 16 million people were in dire need of humanitarian assistance, in part due to drought and conflict. The researcher says that the continuation of humanitarian aid to the country must be ensured.

Everyone has a responsibility: to make it a political solution, and to ensure the possibility of living in Afghanistan, concludes Strand.

(© NTB)