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American Politics, Donald Trump |  Retired military commanders warn the Pentagon:

American Politics, Donald Trump | Retired military commanders warn the Pentagon:

It is completely ahistorical to think that democracy cannot collapse in the United States, when it has occurred in many other places in the world, says senior scholar Hilmar McGildy.

Former President Donald Trump refused to admit defeat in the presidential election to Joe Biden on November 3 last year, and leveled tireless accusations of election fraud. This is despite the fact that all documents indicate the opposite.

On January 6 of the following year, just 14 days before Biden’s inauguration, hundreds of Trump supporters stormed America’s political heartland.

The purpose was to prevent official approval of the election result in Congress. Five people were killed and dozens injured in the attack.

Even after the latest lawsuit against Trump and the ongoing investigation in the House of Representatives, both of which deal with the January 6 storm, Trump still rules the Republican Party. Trump is also likely to run in 2024.

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Three retired US military leaders are now warning the Pentagon of another violent uprising in 2024.

“As we approach the first anniversary of the deadly uprising in Capitol Hill, we (all of our three former senior military officials) are increasingly concerned about the fallout from the 2024 presidential election and the potential for deadly chaos in our defense, which will delay all Americans to take risks,” reads a recent column in Washington Post.

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Chills up the legs

“In short: We get goosebumps to the bone at the thought of the next coup d’état,” the article signed by Major General Paul D. Eaton, and Brigadier General Stephen M.

– What do you think is the risk of civil war in the United States in 2024?

– It can’t be left out. There is a high risk of political violence spreading. In addition, we may have a democratic breakdown, a transition to a form of authoritarian rule that we have seen in many other countries. But it doesn’t have to be So deer. It depends on how the political actors act, senior researcher at the NORCE Research Center, Hilmar Megeldy, tells Nettavisen.

The consolidation of the political situation. The two parties view each other as an existential threat, says Migildy, and the restraint and willingness to cooperate that underpins democracy is absent.

Megildy says that while there are illiberal leanings on the outside left, the main problem is the Republicans.

– They have turned into an outside right-wing party that has the will to overthrow democracy and resort to political violence. He said he showed an attempt to steal the 2020 election and a violent attack on Congress on January 6.

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Counter-majority tendencies in the political system mean that the minority party, i.e. the Republicans, can win both the White House and the Senate without representing a majority of the country’s electors. This in turn is seen as illegitimate on the left, says Migildi.

It is a pity to see the United States rise in glue internally. Unfortunately, this is what will happen. Mjelde says it is completely unhistorical to believe that democracy cannot collapse in the United States, when it has occurred in many other places in the world.

A scenario that you have to take seriously

Sven Melby, a senior researcher in the Department of Defense Studies, has followed US policy for many decades. He looks at developments in the United States with concern.

– Do you think there could be civil war-like conditions in the United States, Melby?

– Previously, one would dismiss such a scenario as completely unthinkable. But now this is a scenario one must take seriously. I don’t think it would very likely lead to Civil War-like conditions in the United States, but there are many things pointing in the wrong direction in terms of internal unity and stability in the United States, that could go wrong. , Melby tells Netavizen.

Norway must take this seriously, not least now that we have established a new defense committee that will look at the outlook for Norwegian defense and security policy, says Melby.

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Melby is referring to the new Defense Committee recently appointed by the Stoer government. Composed of 17 members and chaired by Knut Storberget, the Defense Committee intends to “evaluate security and defense policy options and priorities that Norway can take to protect Norwegian security”.

We must bear in mind that there are developmental features in American politics that mean things can really go wrong. The way we define American democracy can no longer be taken for granted. This may also have an impact on the role of the United States at the international level. We may risk a development in which the United States will no longer be able to play a leading role internationally, Melby says.

Closer to civil war than we think

Retirees are not the only ones worried about democracy in the United States. Barbara F. Walter is a political scientist and professor at the University of California, San Diego. She is also a member of the CIA’s advisory board.

The task of the Political Instability Task Force is to monitor countries around the world and predict which ones are at risk of violent collapse. This working group of the CIA cannot by law monitor and evaluate its own country – the United States. But Walter used the same methods in the United States that she used to monitor countries like Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola, and Nicaragua, to name a few.

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Her conclusion is quite clear: “We are closer to a civil war than some of us think,” she writes in her new book.How do civil wars begin?».

The book will be published in January.

“No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline or heading toward war,” she wrote, according to both. Washington Post And Watchman.

“If you were an analyst in a foreign country and you looked at events in the United States, the same way you evaluate events in Ukraine or Ivory Coast or Venezuela, then you would have gone through a checklist assessing the conditions that made civil war possible. And what you would discover is that the United States, It is a democracy that was established more than 200 years ago, and it occupied a very dangerous territory,” Walter writes.

High risk of complete collapse

Moreover, pensioners Eaton, Anderson and Taguba wrote that the danger of a collapse in defense with subsequent social and political collapses is real. They noted, among other things, that a “worrying number” of those who took part in the storm had background as military veterans. More than one in ten of the congressional storm indictees have a prior service background.

In addition, there is a group of 124 former military retirees, “Flag Officers 4 America,” who wrote a letter claiming that the result of the 2020 election was not legitimized.

Another annoying element highlighted by retired military leaders is that the brigadier general and commanding general of the Oklahoma National Guard, Thomas Mancino, refused to follow a direct order from President Joe Biden to introduce vaccinations to his soldiers.

Mancino assumed that the governor (Republicans) of Oklahoma was his commander-in-chief, not the president. Retired military leaders write that there is a high risk that the chain of command in the army will be affected by a “total collapse” during a new uprising.

“The idea that fraudulent and unreliable units are organizing to support the ‘legitimate’ commander in chief (editor’s note) cannot be rejected,” they wrote.

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“Imagine two rival leaders—reelected Biden giving orders versus Trump (or someone Trump-like) giving orders as shadow head of state. Or worse, imagine politicians at the state and federal levels illegally appointing a losing candidate as president.”

Retired military leaders point out that even if all military officials swear an oath to protect the country’s constitution, the outcome of a controversial election could put loyalty on the line. They do not exclude a case in which some follow the orders of the legitimate commander in chief, while others choose to follow the orders of a “loser of the trumpet.”

Get rid of those who would commit rebellion

Retired military leaders are proposing concrete actions the Pentagon can take to avoid a worst-case scenario, in which the US military’s loyalty is split in two.

“Now that the country is more divided than ever, we must take action to prepare for the worst,” they wrote.

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In short, Eaton, Anderson, and Taguba want the Pentagon to conduct a community review of the Constitution and the election integrity of all of its military and civilian officials.

Eaton, Anderson, and Taguba also believe that the Pentagon should strengthen the defense’s “unity of command” – all of which correspond to one leader at the top. The purpose is to ensure that employees should never be uncertain as to where loyalty should lie, and that they should never be uncertain about their orders to follow in any imaginary situation.

Furthermore, they want to carry out intelligence operations throughout the defense to identify, isolate and exclude elements that might commit an insurgency. They also ask the Pentagon to guard against the spread of disinformation and propaganda aimed at undermining the military’s lines of command.

“Finally, the Department of Defense would have to conduct war maneuvers over a possible upcoming electoral uprising or attempted coup to identify weaknesses. Then they would have to assess the outcomes from the top and bottom, and put in place security measures to prevent collapse — not just in the defense, but in every agency working closely with defense,” Eaton, Anderson, and Taguba wrote.

They concluded: “Both the defense and lawmakers in hindsight could prevent a new uprising in 2024, but they will only succeed if they act now.”