Russia is in the process of receiving large quantities of ammunition from North Korea, according to the American ISW Institute. But one expert tells VG that it is not enough to win the war.
American Think Tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) He relays information from the Estonian intelligence service that North Korea has supplied Russia with up to half a million artillery shells.
Joakim Pasikevi, a lieutenant colonel at the Swedish Defense Academy, read the same information from Estonian intelligence. He says to VG:
– It is possible that these numbers are correct, but in this case the consumption is one month with the current imaging intensity.
– Supplies from North Korea make it possible for Russia to continue waging the war at the same level for a long time – but they do not make it able to win the war, Pasekivi believes.
Reliable information indicates that Russia fired approximately 10 million artillery shells in 2022, with a production production of about two million. This means that the intensity of shooting is no longer what it was before. We also have reliable information about that.
– Pasekivi believes that North Korea’s ammunition supplies are not large enough to help Russia win the war.
This was stated by the head of Estonian military intelligence, Ants Kiviselj, to the country’s state television ISR:
- North Korea has sent up to 1,000 ammunition containers to Russia.
- Each container contains between 300 and 500 artillery shells.
- In total, it would thus be 300,000-500,000.
- Russia has approximately four million artillery shells “in stock.”
So ISW finds the information so credible that they pass it on.
Western sources and satellite images confirm that North Korean shipments, which may consist mostly of artillery shells, have increased significantly since Russian and North Korean authorities likely began more formal military-technical cooperation in September, wrote ISW, which believes that More ammo required. Coming from North Korea.
Based on Western estimates of Russian artillery production capacity and continued North Korean artillery exports, Russia will likely be able to maintain generally adequate rates of fire for the foreseeable future, the Institute for the Study of War continues.
On Wednesday, South Korea, the United States and Japan condemned arms shipments from North Korea to Russia.
Lieutenant Colonel Basikivi for VG:
– Russia has the ammunition to wage war at the same level for a long time – but this hardly makes it possible to carry out new attacks.
ISW has the same rating:
– The lower intensity of Russian fire will not in itself give Ukraine any advantage. Foreign supplies of ammunition will be key to whether Ukraine is able to maintain its firing intensity in 2024.
Lieutenant Colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Military Academy, Trygve Smit, points out that the Russians are still holding on to their positions with heavy artillery in the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka – where Russia and Ukraine have been waging fierce battles throughout the past week.
– This may be an indication that they received more ammunition, and that they waited to start the attack until they had more, Smit says.
– This may also be true considering that trains loaded with ammunition from North Korea arrived in Russia just before the attack began. This is plausible, but it cannot be said with certainty that North Korea is behind it, as is believed.
Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said last week that there is no evidence that North Korea is supplying Russia with ammunition:
Peskov said, according to the report, “The allegations come from both British and American intelligence, but without providing evidence for this.” Rhea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un paid an exciting visit to President Putin in September. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was in North Korea in July, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Pyongyang last week.
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