The specialist cites the current scenario, vacations, and the trend of declining cases and deaths as criteria
For classes to resume in Belo Horizonte for children aged 6 to 12, the “normal life rate” with respect to Covid-19 must be above 70%, according to criteria set by the city on Tuesday (1). This rate is currently 50%, allowing a return to face-to-face activities only for early childhood education. Given the current scenario and the July holidays, classes for students from 6 to 12 years old may return face-to-face in August.
The forecast was made by data scientist and UNI-BH professor Braulio Couto, who helped the PBH Committee on Infectious Diseases prepare the technical note on the return plan and the possible suspension of in-person lessons.
According to Couto, the capital may change its level and advance to the next stage of reopening schools by the end of June. “Everything indicates that the next phase will happen very quickly. In the long term, the trend has shown a steady decline in infection and death rates. Until the end of June, the Bahrain Stock Exchange may change its level. Given the holidays in July, we may be able to return with classes for children over the age of 5 years in August,” he says.
However, the specialist assures that the progress of the capital to the new stage will still depend on the effect of vaccination and the behavior of the population.
Braulio Couto explains that the rate of normality is based on six criteria: the incidence of new cases per 100,000 population (last 14 days), the trend of new cases, deaths per million inhabitants (the last 14 days), the global death of Covid, the mortality trend and the percentage of the population with They were fully vaccinated with both doses.
Based on these data, specialists make a calculation to arrive at the percentage rate of normality. Less than 50%, permission is for online lessons only. Between 50% and 70% are expected to return to the classroom for children up to 5 years and 8 months old. For students ages 6 to 12, the ratio should be between 71% and 80%. In the case of adolescents aged 12 to 18 years, the ratio should be between 81% and 90%.
“These models we made can be applied to any scenario in Brazil. The scores used to score the situation in municipalities were made using signs from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States and Europe,” he explains. .
Infectious disease specialist Carlos Starling, of the PBH’s Covid-19 committee, says decisions about in-person classes will always be made based on technical data. “Everything will depend on the behavior of the epidemic, not just vaccination,” he says.