China and Taiwan | China is strengthening its defense: – The goal is to be able to occupy Taiwan within four years

This week, the 10-day annual meeting of the People’s Congress of China kicked off in the capital, Beijing. The People’s Congress is China’s highest government body and the country’s legislature with a membership of around 3,000.

On the first day, it has already become known that China will boost its defense budget by 7.2 percent. Author and China expert Torbjorn Verovik says the defense allocations will likely go towards achieving, among other things, a “reunification” plan with Taiwan, and a projection of strength in the South China Sea.

– 7.2 percent, a slight increase compared to the average in the previous year. They are taking it very seriously to strengthen defense, and at the same time they will increase provisions for strengthening internal security. Chinese leaders are beginning to fear social unrest and protests because not everything is going smoothly. Police forces and security agencies are getting more money at a time when the economy is suffering, Færøvik tells Nettavisen.

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In 2022, China will achieve economic growth of 3 percent in GDP, well below the announced target of 5 percent. In 2022, China will experience its lowest growth rate in decades. The goal for 2023 is about 5 percent.

– Regarding Taiwan, President Xi Jinping’s stated goal is to equip the armed forces in such a way that they can invade or “re-occupy” Taiwan in 2027. This does not mean that it will happen in 2027. Maybe later. We don’t know when. But the goal is for them to be ready to take over Taiwan in 2027 if necessary, says Færøvik.

– We must assume that a lot of these allocations for the armed forces will go to achieve that plan. It includes, for example, strengthening the navy, making sure they have a landing operation and an air force capable of carrying out “reunification” with Taiwan, he says.

– When the NPC allocates more to defense, it is not only because of Taiwan, but also because of the tense situation in the South China Sea and China’s need to project strength in its generality, he adds.

Appropriations that are earmarked for strengthening internal security – such as police, security and intelligence – are entered into a separate budget line in an increment of about six percent.

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– The United States is the x factor

US President Joe Biden has repeatedly indicated that the Americans will come to Taiwan’s aid if China becomes aware of its plans to invade the island nation.

This is part of the Americans’ strategic ambiguity policy towards the Taiwan issue. Despite the US Congress’s commitment to aiding Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, it is unclear what that assistance would actually entail.

Part of China’s problem is that they don’t know what the United States will do in such a situation, whether the United States will intervene or not. The United States will not officially say what it will do, and it will create problems for China’s planning if they choose to take this step. Færøvik says the US is an x ​​factor in China’s calculations.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang have both spoken of the United States in strong terms in recent days. On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Chen warned that “conflict and confrontation” is inevitable if the United States does not change its attitude towards China.

The background is US reactions to the balloon affair, not least the allegations that China will be able to supply arms and ammunition to Russia.

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President Xi Jinping also made a sharp comment about the United States when he met with advisors and representatives of the Chinese business community during the People’s Congress in Beijing on Monday.

President Xi said in a statement released on American media.

American media, incl The Wall Street JournalHe writes that President Xi is usually somewhat more discreet when criticizing Americans, and this time the criticism of the United States was exceptionally blunt and direct.

– Nothing new from the eastern front

Færøvik notes, however, that the message Shi conveyed has been repeated by the Chinese many times in the past.

– What Xi says, and to some extent he has said before, is that Western countries are very keen on encircling and suppressing China, and that the United States is at the forefront of all this. He says this is nothing new on the eastern front.

– I take it they want to cement the impression that we had before – that the relationship between China and the United States is very deadlocked and will remain so for a long time to come. There are no signs that China or the US will budge on this. He also says that there are no high-level meetings planned between the two parties, such as those between Xi and Biden.

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– What do you think will happen in the long term between the United States and China, Faro?

– In the foreseeable future, I believe that the conflict between the United States and China will be at this level. Democrats and Republicans argue madly about everything else, but if there’s one thing they agree on, it’s that the United States should get tough on China. A separate cross-party committee has been set up in Congress that works to create broader understanding and agreement on China policy. And as long as Biden remains in the White House, that streak will continue, he says.

However, Færøvik is unsure of how China’s policy will change after the presidential election in 2024, when the US is likely to get another run-in with a Trump presidency.

– It is not entirely certain what will happen next. But until further notice, the relationship will be as tense as it is today. What’s important about this situation is that both parties in the middle of this know how to cool off and that they’re keeping important channels on a lower level to be able to talk to each other, he says.

Taiwan Relations Act It is a law passed by Congress in 1979. The law limited the non-diplomatic relations of the United States with Taiwan since the Americans recognized the People’s Republic of China and established diplomatic relations with the Chinese.

The law provides no guarantees that the United States will intervene militarily if China attacks or invades Taiwan. In return, the Act asserts that “the United States will provide defense equipment and services to Taiwan to the extent that may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain an adequate self-defense capability.”