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Downturn in UK infection trend surprises researchers - VG

Downturn in UK infection trend surprises researchers – VG

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson calls for continued caution. Foto: David Rose/Pool Photo via AP/NTB

In recent weeks, infections have fallen in the UK despite the delta variant outbreak, which has surprised researchers. At the same time, the number of corona deaths is rising.


Then the British government All infection control restrictions eased in England on July 19Infection rates were expected to rise immediately.

A number of researchers, including epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, said that after the reopening, 100,000 new cases of infection would almost certainly be recorded per day, possibly more.

One week after reopening, infection rates dropped.

On Monday, infection rates over the previous week fell by 21.5 percent. On July 17, 54,674 new cases were recorded, while on July 26 the number was 24,950.

On Wednesday, 23,511 new cases of infection were recorded, but 131 new deaths were recorded at the same time. It is the highest death toll in the UK since mid-March, it is reported Watchman.

Surprised researchers

In addition to the fact that discos and nightclubs could open again last week, the English reopening also means goodbye to demands for bandage, distance and home office.

Researchers write, surprised by the development of infection New York times. Few of those the newspaper spoke to would be willing to speculate so early after reopening.

Although 70 percent of British adults have been fully vaccinated and millions have contracted the virus, millions of young Britons remain unvaccinated. According to the British Statistics Office, 92 percent of Britons have antibodies as a result of a previous vaccination or infection.

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The number of hospitalizations and deaths continues to rise, with increases of 27 and 50 percent, respectively.

If the number of cases continues to decline, the curve should eventually shift to hospitalizations and deaths as well. Admission and mortality are often dependent to some extent on recorded infection rates.

Several possible reasons

The Guardian writes that the falling infection curve may indicate that it is not a matter of increasing immunity. Then one will experience a decline that lasts for several weeks, not days.

“It can of course happen if we see a short-term dip followed by a new rebound and then a dip again,” epidemiologist Roland Kao of the University of Edinburgh told the newspaper of a new recovery.

The newspaper notes that an increase in injury during the European Football Championship, which was held in England, among other places, may have caused the numbers to decline after the tournament. In addition, there is speculation about whether high school exams have been held and schools closed.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday it was extremely important for Britons to continue to be cautious and not to draw hasty conclusions.

“People should be very careful, this is still the position of the government,” he said.

More than 129,000 deaths and 5.7 million infections have been recorded in connection with the pandemic in the UK.