Antonio Nogueira Leite looks with concern at the end of the country’s non-habitual resident (RNH) system. Not in the real estate sector, but in areas such as innovation, which, under this government measure, may not attract international investors. In an interview with Jornal Economico (JE), the economist outlined the prospects for the real estate market in 2024, as well as measures that were missing from the state budget for 2024 (OE2024).
What is your assessment of 2023 and how do you see next year?
From a purely short-term business perspective, it’s been a positive year, or it’s a positive year, to the extent that, for reasons related to the fact that demand is so strong relative to current supply, we continue to have a performance that’s no longer the great performance of previous years, but it’s still positive. In general, especially in the housing sector. If we look at the market from a perspective not only financially, but from a more structural perspective, we see that the market suffers from serious problems that have not been solved, but on the contrary, they are getting worse.
What are these serious problems?
This is linked to a range of factors of a structural nature, not all of which are well addressed in my view with the Mais Habitação programme. There is a problem in the market that is largely caused by a much lower level of supply than there was normal market supply in the decades leading up to the 2011 to 2013 crisis, and the market recovery has been very slow, as all statistical indicators show. We have a serious production problem at a time when part of the demand has been internationalized, that is, when Lisbon has become, for certain sectors, on the radar not only of investors, but also of potential residents or nationalities other than Portuguese and not only within it. European Union [UE]. All this led to a situation that we know was at the heart of political controversy. I think members and market participants should not forget. This problem does not go away. It’s a serious problem, it has serious social implications, and it could have serious political implications in the future if it’s not solved well or at least if we don’t move more firmly toward solving it.
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