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Everything science knows about climate change and the future of the world's largest economy

Everything science knows about climate change and the future of the world’s largest economy


The G20 is in danger because of the weather:
Everything science knows about climate change
And the future of the largest economy in the world


The first study to present climate scenarios, information, data, expected climate changes and related impacts on the G20 countries. A science-driven tool that highlights the risks of the world’s largest economies and is designed to support decision-making for effective, scientifically informed climate action.

The CMCC publishes the G20 Atlas of Climate Risk: 20 country papers with maps and graphs, and a complete picture of the latest scientific knowledge about climate and its associated risks and impacts on economies, the environment, and societies.

On the eve of the G20 Summit in Rome, the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Climate Change Center G20 Atlas of Climate Risk. Archeology, politics and economics, a comprehensive compilation that summarizes scientific knowledge about the projected effects of climate change over the next few decades in most industrialized countries around the world.

Based on the most recent scientific knowledge available on the subject, the study is the first of its kind and is an easy-to-reference atlas filled with diagrams, maps, and short descriptions in accessible language. Through an in-depth analysis of the major sectors of the G20 economies, the survey assesses the impacts, risks, and interactions with projected mid- and late-century climate change for each country, taking into account different warming scenarios and different development patterns.

The report, produced with the support of the European Climate Foundation and the scientific contribution of the Enel Foundation, found that in the G20 countries, at worst, without urgent action to reduce emissions from climate change, it caused GDP losses. Due to climate change, it could reach 4% per year by 2050, a figure that could exceed 8% by 2100 – nearly double the economic losses incurred by the G-20 by Covid-19. Some of these countries are expected to be severely affected, such as Canada, which could see GDP fall by at least 4% by 2050 and by more than 13% – €133 billion – by 2100.

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On the other hand, the faster the G20 countries adopt low-carbon policies, the fewer the effects of climate change will be, and thus the more manageable they will become. By keeping global temperature rise at 2°C, the cost of these effects for G20 member states could drop to 0.1% of GDP by 2050 and to 1.3% by 2100.

Droughts, heat waves, rising sea levels, declining food stocks, threats to the tourism industry: these findings show how climate change will affect the world’s largest economies unless action is taken now. Mrs. Donatella Spano, member of the CMCC Strategic Council and coordinator of the report. “As scientists, we know that only rapid action to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change will limit their severe impacts. We are confident that on the path to sustainable transition, climate change will be seen as a central pillar of the political action agenda.”

From coastal erosion to the spread of tropical diseases, all G20 countries are at risk from the effects of climate change. Research shows that rising temperatures and extreme heat waves can cause severe droughts, threatening essential water supplies for agriculture, leading to loss of life and increasing the chances of fires.

By 2050, heat waves could last at least ten times longer in all G20 countries, and more than 60 times in the case of Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia. In Europe, under the high emissions scenario, deaths associated with extreme heat events could increase from 2,700 per year to 90,000 per year by 2100.

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Climate change will also affect food security: in India, reduced rice and wheat production could lead to economic losses of up to 81 billion euros by 2050 and a loss of 15% of farmers’ income by 2100. Century, Indonesia’s fisheries could decline by one-fifth, undermining the livelihoods of part of the population.

On a high-carbon path, sea-level rise could destroy coastal infrastructure over the next 30 years, resulting in losses of €404 billion in Japan and €815 million in South Africa.

In Australia, bushfires, coastal flooding and cyclones could increase insurance costs and reduce property values ​​by A$611 billion by 2050.

G20 Atlas of Climate Risk

G20 Atlas of Climate Risk. Archeology, politics and economics It presents a comprehensive picture of historical trends and future climate change for G20 countries, using the available scientific literature and data, and organizing the information into a single, easily searchable tool. The information comes from modeling exercises, data analysis, use of indicators and surveys of the latest scientific literature, including peer-reviewed articles, technical reports and open access materials from European Horizon 2020 projects.

The G20 Climate Risk Atlas provides information on the impacts of climate change for each of the G20 countries according to 11 sectors: climate, oceans, coasts, water, agriculture, forests, fires, cities, health, energy, economics and politicians.

G20 Atlas of Climate Risk. Archeology, politics and economics It is implemented by the CMCC with the support of the European Climate Foundation and with a scientific contribution from the Enel Foundation.