Experts in Ukraine: – Putin’s biggest mistake

After a failed attack against Kyiv and subsequent repositioning against Donbass, strong headwinds for Russian forces in Ukraine are still reported.

according to British intelligence It is possible that more than a quarter of the original Russian invasion forces were no longer combat ready. Some of the elite forces will be hit hardest, according to the British, who believe it could take several years to get them back on their feet.

The recent visit of the Russian Defense Minister to the front is marked by many analysts As a clear indication that the Kremlin is now also aware that the war is not going as planned on the ground in the neighboring country.

strategic failure

Dagbladet spoke to several experts who believe that Vladimir Putin made several “very serious mistakes” in the initial phase of the invasion, and who contribute to the fact that he is now heading toward a protracted war of exhaustion:

• Putin believed that the Ukrainians would quickly surrender, and that there would be broad support for the Russian “liberation”. Russian troops would be almost welcome.
• He believed that the West was divided and that it would take a long time to agree on support for Ukraine and impose sanctions against Russia.
• The Ukrainian army has proven to be much more efficient than the Russian president expected. On the other hand, Russia proved to be much less efficient than expected.

many surprises

The first, and most surprising, mistake is the completely misconception of what Ukraine is, says retired Lieutenant General Arne Bord Dalhaug.

– It led to this sudden situation that we are in today, when the Russian troops withdrew from the Kyiv region, and strengthened their presence in the Donbass, but there are still problems with the advance.

Lt. Col. Geir Hagen Carlsen of the Norwegian Defense College points out that the West’s actions after the February 24 invasion may have come more unexpectedly to Putin.

– Perhaps many in the West were surprised by the quick and clear response, he says.

Three wrong judgments

Andrei Kozyrev, Russia’s former foreign minister under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, had previously erred on three misconceptions about Vladimir Putin:

• Ukraine For 20 years, the president believed that Ukraine was not a real nation. The Maidan protests killed all hope that Ukraine would be independent and friendly to the Kremlin. He also began, according to Kozyrev, to believe his propagandists’ claims that Ukraine was ruled by a Nazi clique.
• the Russian army: The Kremlin has long been trying to modernize the army. Kozyrov claims that a significant part of the budget was stolen and spent on mega yachts, without informing Putin about this.
• the West: The Russian elite believed that the West was divided and weak, after the “toothless” sanctions of 2014. According to Kozyrev, the exit of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan should have reinforced this narrative.

To misjudge all this does not mean that he is crazy, but that it is wrong and immoral, as the former foreign minister writes Twitter.

wrong strategy

Russian forces have also failed to translate large-scale efforts to modernize the army and the numerical superiority of the forces into results on the ground.

This is because, according to it British Ministry of DefenseErrors in strategic planning and operational execution.

The Russian army is now significantly weaker both physically and conceptually as a result of the invasion. They wrote in a statement that Western sanctions would make reconstruction a demand.

Putin’s new army

NUPI researcher Jacob M.

– It may not have been realistic to expect the collapse of Ukraine. Their experiences were, among other things, from Crimea, where the Ukrainian defense had de facto collapsed, and they probably thought the same would happen at that time. But here they got a big strategic surprise.

surprised the whole world

Did Ukraine make any strategic mistakes?

They may have underestimated Russia’s desire to use military force against the country on such a large scale, but it is clear that they prepared for it. Godzimirsky says they may have played their cards before the war a little differently by showing more willingness to stick to the Minsk agreement, but that may not have stopped Putin.

– First time

Hagen Carlsen answers the same question:

– So far I think they’ve done a good job. They fought a defensive struggle that seemed entirely reasonable with the money at their disposal, and were able to muster broad Western support.

Lieutenant General Dallhog says Putin’s miscalculation took the whole world by surprise.

If someone said that it would be as it is today during the first days of the war, no one believed him. I am one of them. The whole world and all the intelligence were astonished by this situation.