Great victory for Ukraine, but war is unlikely to be decided – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries

The problem is that you rarely get to see these tipping points when they happen. It’s often easier to see later.

Now, therefore, Ukrainian troops must have Regained more than 6000 square kilometersp., according to the president. Russian soldiers retreat in panic, although they officially call it “regrouping”.

– The Ukrainian advance was a turning point, but maybe not same turning point, says lead researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).

However, European history since the fall of the Wall in 1989 has taught us that the unthinkable can happen – and change the course of history.

So where do we stand this time? Here are three points that speak volumes for The Ukrainian storm attack in Kharkiv Oblast is decisive. And three points talk about volumes against.

It is not exhaustive, but it does summarize many of the discussions about the war at the moment.

Three points speak for themselves against That attack is crucial

1: Putin has pressure boxes back up

So far, Russia has to some extent attacked critical infrastructure such as power plants, water supplies, and mobile phone networks. At the end of the week, large parts of Kharkiv province were left without electricity and water after attacks by Russian cruise missiles.

President Vladimir Putin may opt to blackout more, making sure more people freeze in the coming winter. Or make sure people can’t use cell phones and the internet.

He can also choose to fully fill his surroundings 2 million reserve soldiers. But it will not be popular at home.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were currently no “discussions” about whether to move to full mobilization.

In the latter case, Putin might also use nuclear weapons. It only takes one bomb for Ukrainians to think there might be more.

2- It is almost impossible to seize Crimea by force

If the Ukrainians succeed in stopping Russia’s attempt to take full control of the Donbass, and even if they manage to retake Kherson, then Crimea remains.

There, the majority wants to be part of Russia, as it has been in practice since 2014. Even before the annexation, Russians made up about 60% of the population. Since then there has been one big flow from Russia.

to me (a) Russian poll 2019 Three out of four think that integration in Russia was “very positive or very positive”.

The Ukrainians have few allies fighting in Crimea. At the same time, the desire to fight among those who support Putin is perhaps greater than anywhere else in Ukraine.

In order to attack Karim, the Ukrainian army must also capture the narrow area of ​​Perikop’s land. At its narrowest, the outcrop is only eight kilometers wide. Then they will be very weak.

The military standoff over a bloodbath cream would likely be unparalleled. A game the Ukrainians are likely to lose.

3: Unwillingness to compromise on both sides

Neither Putin nor Zelensky appears interested in peace talks at the moment. There is no indication that Ukraine’s progress will change anything in this regard.

Zelenskyj again and again He said He would not cede a piece of the country to Russia.

On Monday, Putin’s spokesman said the “special operation” would continue until “the initial goals are achieved.”

That is, the “disarmament and disarmament” of Ukraine and the incorporation of the Donbass region.

The Russian president claims that this is necessary to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Besides, Ukraine was not actually a country, He claimed in his speech Three days before the attack.

In other words, there is a lot to talk about against Ukrainian military progress determines the outcome of the war.

Three points speak for themselves for That attack is crucial

1. Russian supply lines have been cut off

On two fronts, Ukrainian forces have now managed to cut or choke Russian supply lines. Soldiers need food, ammunition and spare parts.

This applies to both from the north via the junction of the Kopzhansk railway to Izyum. It slows down the possibility of controlling the rest of Donetsk province.

Russian soldiers have not made any significant progress for several weeks. Now it is unlikely that they will.

It also cut supply lines in the south. Ukrainians Four bridges destroyed Over the Dnipro and Inholets rivers in the Kherson province. All Russian supplies must now be carried on ferries, preferably under cover of night.

In practice, this means that Russian forces north and west of Dnipro are virtually isolated from their comrades-in-arms.

Lack of supplies makes it unlikely that Russian ground forces will be able to launch a counterattack.

2. The Russian combat morale is greatly weakened

Part of the Russian soldiers in Kherson are now negotiating with the Ukrainian authorities to surrender, According to an official spokesperson Ukrainian forces in the south.

Sources like Russian Independent Online newspaper Vazjnye Istorii They spoke of allegations that there were between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian soldiers on this side of the Dnipro when the Ukrainian counteroffensive began.

Independent sources did not confirm the information that the Russian soldiers wanted to surrender.

In contrast, there are many photos of Russian military equipment left in the rivers and on the roadside in Kherson. Eyewitnesses and bloggers Tell About a Russian withdrawal sounded chaotic.

Right-wing nationalists who initially supported the attack on Ukraine are critical of what is happening on the ground and the strategic capabilities of the General Staff on the Telegram messaging app.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims that it is about reassemble.

Now Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is revealed Swipe on Russian TV.

A former parliament member said his advisers misled Putin and called for peace talks.

Another viewer says that it is no wonder that Ukrainians do not welcome Russian soldiers. After all, the Russian leadership does not recognize Ukraine as a nation.

Many local politicians, including in St. Petersburg and Moscow, go further. In a letter to the National Assembly They are calling for the president’s resignation. They also believe that he should be tried for treason.

The reason, among other things, was that he destroyed combat-ready units of the Russian army with his “special operation”.

The police have questioned several local politicians, but no one has been arrested so far.

3. Putin and the defense leadership realize they have problems

It is very rare for anyone in the Russian public to criticize President Putin. Now criticism comes from several quarters.

He is being criticized by the nationalist right for not ordering the full mobilization.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov He said in a comment Today such expressions are an example of “pluralism”.

– Peskov said that the Russians generally support the president.

This may be the case. But it is now clear to everyone, including in Russia, that Putin and the Russian defense leadership are going through one defeat after another.

Putin has never publicly admitted that he was wrong. But he wants to win or make it look like he won.

So where will this take him now?

In the short term more violence, to appear aggressive. The message came yesterday, that the Russian defense forces launched an “intense attack” with air, missile and artillery forces along the entire front line.

But in the long run, can Putin try to find a way out of the war?

Now the debate about what is happening on the battlefield is underway in full view of the public. There are certainly divided opinions among his officers as to what is being said.

If Putin now tries to stop the discussions by force, it is not clear what the consequences might be.

Not least because critics from both the right and the left have established themselves with hundreds of thousands of followers on social media.

Almost no one knows what is being discussed internally in the Kremlin. Most people probably think that Putin will continue as before. Respond to counterforce with more military force. Attacks on civilian buildings to continue the war. Perhaps for many more years.

So, perhaps, the Ukrainian counterattack is just one of many turning points.