I think that Finnish NATO membership will meet Russian idle talk and little action

Finland will become a member of NATO on Tuesday. Experts believe it is just a preparation for more threats from Russia.

NATO President Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Finland will become a member of NATO tomorrow.

Russia’s reaction was not long in coming. And Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Monday that they will strengthen their military capabilities in the north and northwest. That is, the border with Finland and Norway.

– If forces and resources from other NATO countries are deployed to Finland, we will take further steps to ensure Russia’s military security.

Grushko told the Russian news agency RIA.

Russian expert Una Hackvog at the FFI (Foresvariet Research Institute) thinks it will be mostly rhetorical. And a little work.

– Since it became known that Finland and Sweden will become members of NATO, Russia has said that it will strengthen its military presence. But it will probably only be on paper. It is very unlikely that Russia would prioritize more soldiers near the border with Finland. They have had enough of the Ukraine war.

New military units

Hackvog believes that it is likely that Russia will create new military units to project its power in the border regions with Finland.

– But it is therefore difficult to imagine that Russia would have any soldiers to send there. The chief researcher says there will often be vacancies.

Hackvog believes it is important for Russia to highlight that it is in principle against Finland’s membership in NATO. She points out that Russia considers Sweden and Finland to be part of the West. Even before they wanted to join NATO.

– so it is likely to have little impact on how Russia thinks about setting security policy.

Supported by the Russian expert Jacob M. Gudzimirski at Nupi (Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute):

– There will be a lot of talk. And a little work.

Most Russian soldiers are stationed in Ukraine.

Russia does not consider Finland’s NATO membership a real military threat. Gudzimirski says they will use every means at their disposal to protest.

It highlights diplomacy, military responses, and economic sanctions.

– When you get an expansion of a defense alliance that Russia considers to be an important power factor in its immediate vicinity, you have to expect that they will use all available means. They will also strengthen their presence, but the question is whether they have enough strength to do the job. i doubt it.

It follows closely in the northern regions

Finland’s border with Russia is more than 1,300 km long, and is Europe’s longest land border with Russia. Finland and Sweden both applied to join NATO after Russia went to war with Ukraine last year.

Defense Minister Bjorn Aril Gramm was not surprised by the move from Russia.

Norway and NATO are closely following Russian activity in the north. At the same time, it is important to remember that both Finnish and Swedish applications for NATO membership are a consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Gram tells NTB.