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Israel, Palestine |  Are we heading towards a major war in the Middle East?

Israel, Palestine | Are we heading towards a major war in the Middle East?

comment Expresses the writer’s opinions.

They were all shot down by the fighter.

This is a serious incident in itself. An ongoing attack on a large American warship.

When we look at the context, we find it more dangerous.

Yemen is under the control of the Houthi militia, which also means that “USS Carney” For all practical purposes it was attacked by Iran.

Given that the entire Middle East is nearing a breaking point, this is highly unusual. Imagine if they were hit.

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Worryingly

The incident was part of a series of incidents that occurred last week in which several American bases in the Middle East were attacked. No serious injuries were reported.

What is most troubling about this is that Iran, along with others, is clearly willing to risk war with the United States.

This is a very bad sign, which greatly increases the risk of a major war in the Middle East. Iran has always been a major supporter of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which engages in daily skirmishes with Israeli forces in the north.

But it is also clear that they are involved in financing and training Hamas.

Jorn Sund Henriksen

Jørn Sund Henriksen was an election observer in Kiev during the Orange Revolution of 2004 and served in the Coast Guard Command. He has been involved in independent intelligence (OSINT) for more than 10 years in several conflicts and is a leader in the Norwegian-Ukrainian Society of Friends. His contributions are based on open source research and are therefore an accumulation and analysis of currently available information, with the risk of missourcing.

Barracks in Beirut

Yesterday marked 40 years since the barracks bombing in Beirut, which claimed the lives of 241 American soldiers and 58 French. It is on Biden’s mind, who will do everything in his power to avoid being drawn into another war in the Middle East.

At the same time, there are several signs that have common features with the period before September 11, 2001. Several terrorist attacks such as the embassy bombings in East Africa and the attack on the USS Cole served as preparation for the World Trade Center. .

US intelligence came out yesterday saying that it expects more attacks on American bases in the next week.

There may be repercussions after the attack in Israel.

Or maybe it’s a warning of more to come.

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Two aircraft carrier groups off Israel

It is no coincidence that the first thing Biden did after the terrorist attack on Israel was to send the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier group from the Adriatic Sea to the eastern Mediterranean.

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In addition, he ordered the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to put to sea in support of the USS Gerald R. Ford.

Having two aircraft carrier groups in one place is a very clear signal to the outside world; “Don’t mess with us.”

Biden’s visit and speech also expressed this clearly. Other resources are being moved to Jordan, and several Western allies are moving smaller forces to the region.

The hope is that Hezbollah, Iran, and others who have been seduced by the idea that they can achieve different goals through war will realize that the United States is able and willing to ensure their victory in that war.

Good old deterrence.

However, two things are required to achieve deterrence; The real military power and credibility that they are willing to use.

Biden is trying to express both, but it may be too little, too late.

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Weak American credibility

The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and the escalating situation in the Middle East are signs that America’s credibility as a guarantor of security is weakening.

This may be something that has happened over time, but I think there are some concrete events that specifically contributed to this happening.

The most important thing is the red line that Obama set in Syria in 2012.

He has announced to the world, and especially to the Assad regime, that the use of chemical weapons is his red line in Syria, and that it will lead to a military response.

However, Assad chose to use sarin gas in 2013 against his own people, killing more than 1,000 civilians. Obama’s red line has been crossed.

There was no result. It turns out that the red line drawn by Obama is theoretical and not real.

Stay up to date here with the latest news in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Power vacuum, division, and Putin’s call

Realizing a power vacuum, Putin intervened on the side of the regime, and after years of mass killing of Syrian civilians, Assad remains in power.

I’m not saying that American intervention would necessarily make the situation in Syria better, but the worst thing Obama could do is say what intervention might lead to – and then not follow through. Then he should have said nothing.

The withdrawal of first Iraq and then Afghanistan also contributed to strengthening the belief in the possibility of defeating the United States.

The power vacuum in both Syria and Iraq helped make ISIS an opportunity, and it took a long time for the Obama administration to intervene against ISIS.

The weak Western response to the Russian invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 also weakened the credibility of the United States and the West.

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The Georgia event in 2008 was a shock, but it came right after France and Germany blocked Georgia and Ukraine’s NATO membership roadmap at a NATO summit.

Putin viewed the division as an invitation.

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“Reset” in the relationship with Russia

After invading and occupying parts of Georgia, President Obama recently began a “reset” in relations with Russia.

Russia’s occupation and annexation of Crimea, and subsequent invasion of Donbas, were also met with very limited responses from the West.

Obama refused to support Ukraine with powerful weapons like spears and only sanctions were imposed.

When Putin realized that the West would not respond more forcefully, he escalated the war in 2015, forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table.

After significant pressure from France and Germany, which wanted to continue purchasing Russian gas, President Poroshenko signed the Minsk agreements.

Despite the West’s intervention in Libya, there was no clear plan when the war ended.

The United Nations’ work to rebuild a functioning state had no chance.

Various groups received support from actors such as Qatar, Russia (Wagner), Syria, Egypt, Turkey and even ISIS, which tore the country apart.

Several other countries have followed the same path. Like Yemen, for example, which Iran used to attack the USS Carney.

The last and final sign of weakness was the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which resulted in the Taliban regaining power despite 20 years of massive military and financial investments.

A sign that even when the West is really betting, we don’t have the stamina.

Can Biden turn things around?

Two aircraft carrier groups and clear speech assistance. But that may be too little, or too late.

American and Western support for Ukraine has been good and is continuing to increase. But it took a long time. Hesitation and fear of Russian reactions diminished some perceptions of the West’s power.

One area where Biden has served as a good deterrent is in confronting China.

When tensions reached their peak, he sent Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan to show support. At the same time, he broke away from decades of strategic ambiguity and said frankly that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if it was attacked.

Many described it as warmongering, but in reality it reduced the danger of war. Now China realizes that if it wants to seize Taiwan, a war will break out with the largest military power in the world.

However, it is no use being the greatest military power in the world if your enemies do not understand that you are.

Russia has launched an extremely large-scale disinformation campaign, with NATO and the West exhausting themselves in Ukraine, with empty arms stocks and a war-weary population.

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Many of those who now see war as an attractive prospect are the recipients of this misinformation.

The truth is that the West is better prepared for conflict now than we have been since the 1990s.

Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has taken us out of deep peace and into greater focus on defense capability and preparedness.

Cooperation between the two countries has become greater than it has been since the Cold War, defense budgets have increased (particularly in Sweden, but not so much in Norway), and production capacity has been mobilized in the arms industry.

Facts about Joe Biden

*Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. He was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania on November 20, 1942.

* She grew up in a middle-class Catholic family, and her mother was of Irish descent. The family moved to Delaware when he was eleven years old.

* His first wife and their 1-year-old daughter died in a car accident in 1972. Biden was a single father to his two sons, Beau and Hunter, for five years.

* He married Jill Jacobs in 1977, with whom he had a daughter, Ashley, four years later.

*Sun Bo died of brain cancer in May 2015.

* He was elected as a Democratic Senator from Delaware in 1972, at the age of 29.

* He was re-elected six times, most recently in 2008.

* He tried to become the Democrats’ presidential nominee in 1998 and 2008, but to no avail.

* Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017.

*He became the Democrats’ nominee for the 2020 presidential election.

* He won the presidential election with a record turnout and very equal results in several swing states

* Biden was inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States in a ceremony held on January 20, 2021.

* On April 25, he announced his candidacy for re-election as the Democratic nominee in the November 2024 presidential election.

* If he wins, he will be 82 years old when his term begins and 86 years old when it ends.

Source: NTB

It’s always the civilians who lose

If Iran, Russia and others want to escalate and spread conflicts, they will lose.

There is no doubt that the United States wins any high-intensity war in which it engages.

But what we see in both Ukraine and the Middle East is global. Regardless of which military force wins the war, it is the civilians who lose.

every-time.

Therefore, the most important thing of all is to avoid war. Therefore, credible deterrence is important.

Therefore, Biden sent two aircraft carrier groups to the Mediterranean.

Then we’ll see if that’s enough.