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Israel – Palestine, Gaza |  A Norwegian expert on Putin claims: – It will be very surprising

Israel – Palestine, Gaza | A Norwegian expert on Putin claims: – It will be very surprising

On Saturday, Swedish terrorism researcher Hans Brunn said he believed Hamas may have received help planning the attack on Israel. He pointed to Russia and Iran as potential backers.

He does not share this theory with lawyer and conflict researcher Cecily Hellestvedt, who has worked in both Russia and the Middle East.

– I don’t think the Russians have a hand in the game here. It would be very surprising. In the Middle East, Russia cooperates with states, not NGOs. Russia also considers Israel a key partner, and Moscow is unlikely to put it at risk, says Helstvedt, who points out that Israeli authorities do not participate in Western sanctions against Russia.

Read also: Expert on Hamas attack: – They may have received help from Russia

– An intelligence disaster

Hellesvet explains that Iran and Israel are in fact in an ongoing conflict, with both sides attacking each other in sporadic minor attacks. Therefore, it believes that Iranian intervention would have led to Israel responding to the attack plans.

– The Iranians have had a certain role in Gaza for a few years and have had some kind of cooperation with Hamas, but the fact that Israeli intelligence did not pick up on the preparations for the attack is an indication that Iran is not heavily involved.

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In Israel and on social media, questions are being asked about how the Israeli intelligence service was caught in bed, as it appears so far.

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– Israel is very wary of Iranian claws in its immediate area, as is the case in Gaza. If Iran, contrary to assumption, has a major role, then we are talking about a greater intelligence disaster for Israel.

The worst in 50 years

On Saturday morning, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel with several thousand rockets and ground forces. It did not take long before Israel responded militarily to the attack.

– What we saw was an extraordinary operation in which Hamas was able to deceive the Israeli army and was able to control territory inside Israel for the first time since 1949. The importance of this operation is unparalleled. No Palestinian groups have been able to achieve this before. Rocket attacks are one thing, but this is a completely different kind of danger that Hamas has shown it can pose to the Israeli civilian population.

Helstvedt believes the consequences of this could be significant.

This means that Israel is forced to make changes in its relationship with Gaza. I think they will try to eliminate Hamas and then intervene with ground forces. I do not believe that Gaza can remain an enclave after that, because Hamas has shown that it can represent an almost conventional threat to Israel. It is simply too dangerous for Israel.

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– He is not an Iranian agent

Eric Scarry, a researcher in Middle Eastern studies at UiO, believes Iran may have had a role in the game, but says it is too early to say to what extent.

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-We know very little at this point. What we do know is that Hamas receives support from Iran in the form of money, weapons, advanced weapons systems, and soldier training. Most likely it was a form of consultation, says UiO’s Middle East expert Eric Scarry.

– Many people talk about Iran, but it is important not to limit Hamas to an Iranian agent. Hamas is not a puppet controlled by Iran.

– A complete crisis

On Sunday, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia fired artillery shells at Israeli military positions in an Israeli-occupied area near the borders with Lebanon and Syria. Israel responded with artillery fire.

We know that Hezbollah is in a state of waiting and waiting. They have given clear signals that they are present, but they are not participating yet.

What significance would it have if you were to raise yourself?

It will be a complete crisis. I don’t think it will be an existential crisis, but it will mean that Israel will have to defend itself on three fronts with Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. After that, everything will become more complicated, and civilian casualties will increase, not only in Israel, but also in Lebanon, which is likely to be involved.

Sakkari also believes there is a real possibility that the armed group will fully join the conflict.

We are now in a situation where you have a matrix of decisions, which in turn can lead to wrong judgments that ignite conflict. It is very complicated on Earth now, leading to great opportunities for human error. I say it will happen, but the possibility exists.

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Israel’s response

At the time of writing this report, 600 Israelis have been confirmed killed at the hands of the country’s authorities. While it is said that about 400 people were killed in the Gaza Strip.

– It cannot be overstated how shocking this is for Israel. There will very likely be a crazy reaction unlike anything we’ve seen before. The researcher says: We can expect bombing of the Gaza Strip and Israel announcing that it is targeting Hamas targets, but it is impossible to distinguish them from civilians.

– Many people talk about Iran, but it is important not to limit Hamas to an Iranian agent. Hamas is not a puppet controlled by Iran.

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