Job creation will slow in the second quarter

A sharp slowdown in employment expectations is expected in the second quarter of the year. The conclusion is from the ManpowerGroup Q2 2024 Employment Outlook Survey.

Portugal reveals itself, globally, as the second country with the largest decline in net job creation forecasts between quarters, the study reveals. The most optimistic employment forecasts here relate to the communications and IT services, consumer goods and services sectors.

In Portugal, employers in the southern region are those who want to hire more, and large companies with 1,000 to 5,000 workers and more than 5,000 workers are those who want to strengthen their teams.

These are the data from the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey which therefore reveals a forecast for net job creation of more than 11% for the second quarter of 2024, an already seasonally adjusted value which translates into a decline of 17 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and 5 percentage points compared to In the same period in 2023.

Uncertainty in the national and global macroeconomic and political scenario contributes to the slowdown in job creation, which, according to the study, generates greater caution and a decline in employment intentions for the second quarter of 2024.

Continuation of restrictive monetary policies, as a result of resilient, although low, inflation; The tense geopolitical situation, with continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East; slowdown in exports; The growing impact of climate change on economies and supply chains means companies face a potentially volatile quarter, says Manpur.

However, 42% of employers expect to maintain their current headcount, and 33% expect to increase their teams in the next quarter, compared to 22% who intend to reduce their headcount.

These values ​​place Portugal 11 percentage points below the global average and 4 percentage points below the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region.

The country thus accounts for the second-largest quarterly decline in hiring intentions globally, next to Romania, and lower than Puerto Rico, which fell by 19 percentage points.

At the level of the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, Portugal is the country that witnesses the largest slowdown between seasons, along with Romania.

“Data from the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, relating to the second quarter of 2024, reveals caution on the part of Portuguese employers, given the current scenario of political volatility and economic slowdown.” statement.

“The data continues to show that the demand for qualified talent will remain strong in many growing sectors and competency areas, in a context where the talent shortage remains very high,” adds Rui Teixeira.

“Companies must therefore overcome this scenario of uncertainty and invest in a targeted way in attracting talent, but also in onboarding and reskilling workers, to address the current skills mismatch and build talent bases that will allow their future development while accommodating business models. Technological development and green transformation “, says the person responsible for the consultancy in Portugal.

Communications, information technology, goods and services with a more optimistic employment outlook

Despite the current situation, employers in eight of the nine sectors analyzed in Portugal expect to increase their teams in the second quarter of the year, with only the Transport, Logistics and Automotive sector revealing negative hiring intentions.

But when compared to the previous quarter, expectations weakened in eight sectors, and strengthened in only one sector.

Compared to the second quarter of 2023, the pace of employment weakens in five out of nine sectors, is stronger in two sectors and remains stable in two others.

Therefore, communications and information technology services and consumer goods and services are the most optimistic in terms of employment for the second quarter.

“The telecommunications services sector, which includes telecommunications and media, is the sector with the strongest hiring intentions, with net job creation forecast at +38%,” the study says. However, this forecast represents “a significant decrease of 12 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, but an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year,” explains Manpur.

“Employers in the IT sector are ranked second most optimistic, with a strong forecast of +22%. But this value reflects a sharp decline of 35 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, and is the second sector that saw the largest decline between quarters.

Employers in the consumer goods and services sector also reveal respectable hiring intentions, “with a forecast for net job creation of +16%, which reflects an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the period between January and March of this year and stability. compared to the same period last year.” “.

The study reveals that the energy and utilities, heavy industry and materials sectors are progressing with positive expectations of +10%. “In the first case, despite the feeling of optimism, this value shows a sharp decline of 24 percentage points compared to the last quarter, and 19 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023.”

“The heavy industry and materials sector recorded a significant slowdown of 14 percentage points compared to the first three months of the year, and 5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023,” Manpower said.

Although less optimistic, the finance and real estate sector is progressing with positive, but moderate, expectations regarding the increase in the number of its teams, reaching +6%, according to the same source. However, this value reveals a decrease of 28 percentage points compared to the previous three months.

It was followed by the Health and Life Sciences sector with +3%, also recording a sharp decline of 26 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2024 and stability compared to the same period in 2023.

Finally, only the transportation and logistics industry has a negative outlook for net job creation of -7%, indicating the impact of a slowdown in trade and consumption indicators, as well as disruptions in global supply chains, Manpower reveals. He adds that in this way, expectations decrease sharply, by 43 percentage points compared to the last quarter, and 21 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year.

Stronger job creation in the south and more moderate job creation in the centre

Employers in all regions have positive hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2024, although there has been a slowdown in everyone's expectations compared to the first three months of the year.

But compared to the same period in 2023, three regions – the northern region, the central region and the southern region – are developing positively.

The southern region is considered the most optimistic regarding net job creation, reaching +24%, which reflects the impact of employment needs in preparation for the high tourist season, according to the study. This forecast reveals a positive development of 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

It is followed by the Nordic region and Greater Lisbon, with forecasts of +15% and +12% respectively.

Regarding the North region, expectations indicate a moderate decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the last quarter, but with a slight increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023.

In Greater Lisbon, the intentions raised by employers reveal a sharp decline of 25 percentage points compared to the period between January and March of this year, and a slight decline of 4 percentage points compared to the second quarter of last year.

Greater Porto presents a cautiously optimistic forecast for net job creation of +9%, which equates to a sharp slowdown of 20 percentage points, compared to the beginning of the year and compared to the same period in 2023.

Finally, but also with a positive forecast, the Central region seems to be recording a forecast of +6%. Manpower explains that although this value reveals a significant decline of 12 percentage points between quarters, it reflects relative stability compared to the same period in 2023, with an increase of one percentage point.

Large companies report the most optimistic hiring intentions

Proving that size matters when it comes to headcount shrinkage, the study reveals that the most valid forecasts are for large companies with 1,000-5,000 workers and 5,000+ workers, both with a forecast net job creation of +24%.

In the first case, this value translates into a decrease of 6 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2024 and 4 percentage points compared to the second quarter of 2023.

Large companies with more than 5,000 workers reveal an increase in their hiring intentions of 7 percentage points compared to the last quarter, and 10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023.

The study says that in five of the six company size categories analyzed, employers had positive hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2024, with only one category reporting no change in hiring intentions.

However, all organizational dimensions show a negative development compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Regarding small companies, there is a forecast of +13%, which still reveals a decrease of 8 percentage points compared to the last quarter, and in medium companies, there are 11% more favorable hiring intentions.

Finally, employers in small enterprises and large companies with up to 1,000 workers are those applying with modest hiring intentions, with the value set at +2% and 0% respectively. The latter is the one that shows the largest decline compared to the previous quarter, with a decrease of 34 percentage points.

Global hiring intentions show a slowdown. Portugal is the second country with the largest decline between quarters

ManpowerGroup's quarterly survey surveyed 40,077 employers in 42 countries and territories.

As in Portugal, “the outlook for net job creation at the global level is developing negatively, suffering a decline of 4 percentage points compared to that recorded in the previous quarter, and 2 percentage points compared to the same quarter in 2023. However, the forecast The situation remains favourable, at +22%,” the statement said.

Of the 42 countries and territories surveyed, although only two offer negative employment forecasts, 39 countries show a slowdown compared to the previous quarter and 25 countries also show this slowdown compared to the same period last year.

At the global level, India has the most optimistic outlook at +36%, followed by the United States of America at +34%. On the other hand, forecasts were more conservative in Romania, at -2%, followed by Israel at -1%, and Argentina at +1%.

In the EMEA region (EMEA), where Portugal is located, the net job creation forecast is +15%, 6 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in the last quarter.

Thus, the region continues to present the lowest intentions among the four regions analyzed at the global level, which include North America (+31%), Central and South America (+19%), and Asia-Pacific (+27%), according to the Workforce Study.

The next study will be released in June 2024 and will show employment expectations for the third quarter of the year.