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Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple Vision Pro's return rate is less than 1%

Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple Vision Pro's return rate is less than 1%

Just under a month after arriving Apple Vision Pro To the stores, analyst Ming Chi Kuo Brought data and forecasts About the product and Mação's next steps related to it. The news is generally positive, although there are still concerns about the future of the device.

The point highlighted by Ko was: Return fees Headphones: Confirming previous expectations, he stated – based on examining the repair and refurbishment production line – that the current percentage of returned devices will be less than that. 1%. Of these, between 20% and 30% had returned a Vision Pro because they “didn’t know how to configure the device.” like pointed out by AppleInsiderThe price is very similar to the iPhone 15 Pro.

Moreover, according to the analyst, while Apple's expectations for sale were between 150 thousand that it 200 thousand Units of the device in the United States this year, and it is now expected that it will be sold between 200 thousand that it 250 thousand. However, he also highlighted that delivery times are now shorter and that during the pre-sale, the delivery estimate was the beginning of March.

In other words, although the headphones sold out during the pre-sale period, as early enthusiasts purchased the product, demand dropped dramatically and stabilized. According to Kuo, unless Apple lowers the price of the Vision Pro or has more attractive apps, sales growth in the US market should be limited.

Expansion to other countries

As for the device's expansion into other markets, with limited growth in demand in the US, the progression of the global launch calendar should be more favorable as production of the device ramps up.

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The time remaining until the product is available in other countries also depends on whether modifications are made to comply with local regulations. Kuo also reinforced the prediction that the product will reach other regions before Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) this year.

Last month, several small manufacturers reportedly expanded their Vision Pro production capacity by 500-600 thousand to 700-800 thousand Units are based on Apple's request, although the product remains niche. In addition to being important to meet higher-than-expected pre-sale demand, this expansion will allow us to reduce delivery time when launching the device in other countries.

However, it is important not to confuse production capacity with the number of devices actually produced and sold. Capacity is a possibility and usually exceeds the number of devices that are actually manufactured, although this increase is positive for the Vision Pro boost.

Next steps for Vision Pro

Based on Kuo's analysis, despite general market expectations that Apple Launching a cheaper version of the headset with more modest specifications and another, more powerful model, neither of which has actually been officially developed.

According to him, the next generation Vision Pro should enter mass production between the fourth quarter of 2019 2025 And the first of 2026, when the plant should receive the first instructions. According to the analyst, the new project will focus on increasing production efficiency and supply chain management, at the expense of major changes in specifications.

However, improvements may reduce costs. The latest product plan will feature changes limited to the headset's specifications only, so the user experience shouldn't be too different from the current model. Apple will also collect user feedback to improve the device.

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Kuo's estimate is that the new Vision Pro model with significant changes from the current model will not enter mass production before 2027. The analyst emphasized how headphones remain a niche product, given the relatively low level of demand and production as expected, despite initial demand and the expansion of manufacturing capacity beyond expectations.

For both Apple and suppliers, investing in the device still has a limited impact on the stock's value, in the analyst's view. He also highlighted three critical factors in turning a headphone into a mass product: applications, price, and comfort. Therefore, improvements in these points should be important for the company.


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