Military expert Jacob Skarenberg believes that Western arms aid prevents Ukrainians from meeting Russia in peace talks – so they can end the war.
Russia was never good in the first phase of a war, but they are adept at wearing down an opponent, and that is exactly what is happening now. They’ll come back strong, says Jacob Skarborg to VG.
He is a historian and geographer, and worked for the Danish Armed Forces Intelligence Service for 26 years.
For several days, the Russians tried to cut off a supply line to the Ukrainian forces in the area near the city of Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Province.
At the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry claims that nearly 40 targets have been hit by air strikes in the past 24 hours. Of these, five weapons depots will be located in the Donbass region, where Luhansk is located.
Ukraine needs weapons, and they get them from the West. The problem is that these weapons have to be sent to the front lines. Not only are the distances huge, but the supply lines are also being constantly destroyed by the Russians, says Skarenberg.
The Norwegian government donated a total of 4,000 anti-tank missiles and Several types of protective and other military equipment of Ukraine, as well as an air defense system called “MANPADS”.. On Sunday, May 8, Norway also increased its contribution to the Ukrainian state to NOK 300 million.
Western arms aid prevents Ukrainians from meeting Russia in peace talks – so they can end the war. Skarenberg believes that our support for Ukraine only contributes to more death and destruction.
He notes that support for weapons and money, as well as visits by Western politicians, pressure Ukrainians to continue fighting.
How can they give up fighting when we give them almost everything they ask for? He sees it as a psychological mechanism, not a law.
He argues that Russia will “win the war” – meaning that it will increase its territory in eastern Ukraine. He does not believe that the Russians will invade the whole country.
– I find it difficult to understand how Ukraine will attack the Russians and force them out of the country. The historian, who also wrote in one of the debates in Danish, says that the Ukrainian strikers will suffer heavy losses. Information.
– But what will happen if the West stops sending weapons?
Russia will win whether we send weapons or not. Heavy weapons (tanks, artillery) will not reach the Ukrainians in time to make a difference.
He notes that the Ukrainian logistics system is largely dependent on rail transport.
The Ukrainian railway system is mostly electric. No electricity, no rail, no rail, no supplies, he says and continues:
– You can supply the troops with the help of trucks, but the number required is staggering and everyone runs on diesel. The Russians hit railway hubs, power stations, bridges, and Ukrainian fuel depots. He says the ammunition needed to stop the Russian artillery cannot reach the troops.
He asserts that he personally does not want a Russian victory in any way:
– That’s me just making cold calculations that indicate a disadvantage for the Ukrainians.
Ukraine: tough matches in Luhansk
Over the weekend, heavy fighting erupted near the cities of Severodonetsk and Lyschansk, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Ukrainian military leaders have said that Ukrainian forces are being attacked by Russian artillery along the entire front line. Russian troops tried to storm villages outside Severodonetsk, but so far to no avail.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg She said on Sunday last week that the war will not go the way Moscow wantsAnd that Ukraine can win this war. In late March, Russian forces withdrew from the Kyiv region, moving to eastern and southern Ukraine to support operations in the Donbass.
Ukrainian forces in the east are buried and exposed daily to Russian artillery attacks. Skarenberg believes that Russia will not win tomorrow, next week or next month, but in the end it will.
Former science chief and military secretary to the Minister of Defense, Jacob Borsen, emphasizes that Skarenberg offers a somewhat different and very pessimistic analysis of the development and possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine than one usually gets from Western intelligence.
I largely agree with his assessment, but war is more complex than physical power relations. The outcome of a war depends on the will, so who has the greater will to continue? He says that the Ukrainians are fighting for their country, and there is no sign of a weak desire to fight.
Borsen believes that a Russian victory is possible if Western support for weapons is stopped altogether.
– But it will take a long time before the desire to support Ukraine declines, and if that happens, Russian forces can invade the major cities in the east.
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