Europe depends on Vladimir Putin. It’s time to replace it with something more refurbished.
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After the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia, gas prices plummeted. Europe makes electricity from gas. Therefore, the strength is standard high. Also in Norway that trade in the same market.
It doesn’t seem to be getting better for long. For Europe, Russian gas is at the mercy.
It took a war for everyone to realize how stupid it is that Vladimir Putin needs to boil potatoes and stay warm all over Europe.
Just before the invasion, the Germans worked to open a new gas pipeline from Russia. It will not happen now. exactly the contrary. On Tuesday, the European Commission presented A plan to get used to it Russian gas.
On the same day, Russia threatened to stop gas in one of the European gas pipelines.
This is serious.
If the gas stops, we are no longer talking about the energy price crisis. But an energy crunch. There is a big difference from country to country, but in total Russia covers about 40 percent of Europe’s gas needs.
European households, especially Italy, Germany and the countries of the East, need gas. It is used for heating and electricity generation and an industry must have it for production.
Many analysts disagree about the size of the gap if Russian gas is stopped. The European Union, the International Energy Agency, and many different market analysts all believe that the EU will not be able to bridge the gap after Russian gas in the short term.
The plan presented by the European Union on Tuesday is to cut off the need for two-thirds of Russian gas during the year.
He is very ambitious. He is not sure he will go.
Statements that Europe can take us away from Russian gas quickly, to what we say “good luck”. It’s very challenging, Trevor Sikorsky of Point Carbon said in a webinar hosted by Montell on Wednesday.
In the current situation, at worst, Russia may decide to stop all deliveries. Just a few days without Russian gas reaching Europe would mean that today’s very high prices will look low.
Then it could get dark all over Europe. Some industries must Shut down because gas became too expensive. This is called «We demand destruction” and we are already witnessing it.
To reduce demand, one can also resort to rationing. The authority can simply control who has access. They will prioritize families, light and heat. And the most important choice in the industry.
One of the proposals in the EU plan is to reduce the heat somewhat indoors.
For Norway, which is gaining fat from rising gas and oil prices, things will go well as usual. We have a lot of hydropower and money in the books. The government covers parts of the popular electricity bill and extended the plan on Tuesday.
Other countries in Europe do not have this money. Nor are they self-sufficient in power.
In Ukraine, people do not have electricity anymore. At the same time, Norway is making a huge profit from energy prices in the war.
For Russia, it is not easy either. The country needs revenue. They are in a costly war and the sanctions are very harsh.
They mostly live on gas and oil. They may not be able to stop the flow of gas. Of course, such a thing would be very detrimental to the reputation of a reliable supplier.
For Europe, it is good if the weather is warmer. The continent is said to have enough gas to survive the summer.
The big challenge is to replenish stocks before next winter. We are talking about huge amounts. If Europe gets enough, it will cost an incredible amount.
An alternative to Russian gas is liquefied gas, called LNG, which is made by Norway and the United States, among other things.
Europe is expanding its capacity to receive more of this gas. But here, too, there are bottlenecks, such as ships, ports and the ability to liquefy gas and turn it back into gas.
Here already in full swing. Therefore, LNG cannot replace all Russian gas in the short term. Before winter arrives, Asia will also fill up its gas reserves.
It looks like it will take several years to get Putin’s gas in Europe.
When Europe has become so dependent on Russian gas, it comes to the fact that its reserves are shrinking. It has also been a climate goal to abandon coal and nuclear power.
But now coal is sailing again to generate electricity. Germany has large quantities of it.
This doesn’t sound good for people’s jobs, the wallet, or the environment. But it is clear: in the energy crisis in Europe, you can not stop using coal.
Because we can not do without fossil energy.
But this does not mean that Europe will have to burn oil and coal in the coming years. In the European Union, it was asserted that green energy would take up a significant part of Russian gas, along with, for example, nuclear power and Norwegian gas.
Putin’s war will likely accelerate the development of fossil and renewable energy.
But now we realize that it pays to not depend on tyrants. Much of the world’s gas and oil is controlled by non-democratic countries.
Sun and wind, on the other hand, everyone has.
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