Russia and Ukraine – Arc Diplomacy

Director: This is an editorial from Dagbladet, and expresses the views of the newspaper. Dagbladet’s political editor is responsible for the editorial.

2021 recedes What increasingly resembles an aggressive cold war between Russia and the West. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store was one of those who, at the government’s semi-annual press conference, took the opportunity to warn of the dire consequences for Russia if the country took military action against Ukraine. Last week, the President of the United States did the same, and this week, President Vladimir Putin spoke with, among others, Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom and Emmanuel Macron in France, who relayed the same message. NATO President Jens Stoltenberg and European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued similar warnings. A common front was created. Something new from the Western Front.

Starting point Fearing that nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers now marched along the border with Ukraine. The obvious question is why are they there? Are they preparing to invade as Ukraine claims? If so, how extensive is the military operation using superior Russian military power? And not least, what would it take to defuse the crisis now on the border between Russia and Ukraine?

in a better world There are no reasonable answers to Russian power building. In the real world, there is a fairly qualified speculation. President Putin this week practiced almost hyperactive diplomacy that ended in lengthy talks with his Chinese colleague Xi Jinping on Wednesday, and he almost breathed a sigh of relief saying: “Our country has found a new model of cooperation, with non-interference in internal affairs, respecting each other’s interests ».

implicit: The West groans over its human rights and will not respect our interests.

In Monday’s conversation with Boris Johnson, Putin – for the first time on this dramatic tour with a potential invasion force on the border – was somewhat specific about what he wanted. According to the Kremlin’s filming of the conversation, Putin demanded legally binding agreements not to expand NATO eastward. He wants agreements on what Ukraine should be able to do militarily in the east of the country.

this means Putin seems to be demanding a nearly demilitarized Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, without NATO weapons, which is unacceptable for Ukraine, and difficult for NATO. Among other things, NATO leaders have repeatedly said that Ukraine’s relationship with NATO should not be dictated by Russia, although security and membership guarantees are excluded.

Almost all confidence in the relationship between Russia and the West has been lost, as both sides delve into their own trenches. There are bleak prospects for the New Year.