– Similar statements were made by a reassuring Russian researcher. says Jacob M. Godzimirsky, however, that an invasion cannot be completely ruled out.
Russian media mogul Dmitry Kiselyov, considered the mouthpiece of President Vladimir Putin, issued a stern warning to NATO this week, warning the alliance to stay out of the Ukraine conflict.
“Otherwise, you will turn to radioactive ash,” Kiselyov said, noting that the Russians are ready to resort to nuclear weapons in the event of an escalation of the conflict.
Earlier this week, Putin also made a sharp remark during a meeting with the Russian Defense Minister and the Russian Defense Minister. President Putin has responded to Russia’s recent move by the West to help Ukraine with weapons and military training.
“If the obvious line of aggression of our Western counterparts continues, we will carry out appropriate retaliatory military measures and act harshly against unfriendly steps,” Putin said.
– I also assure that we have every right to do so. “We have the right to act to protect Russia’s security and sovereignty,” Putin said.
seas: Russia calls on NATO to end all military activities in Ukraine
Putin uses more serious language
Ukraine and many European countries fear that Putin may have plans to invade the country. Putin rejects this, but clearly wants to give the impression that an invasion may be imminent.
– The situation now is that the Russian forces continue to mobilize along the border with Ukraine, get some kind of logistical support from field hospitals and so on. At the same time, Putin used slightly more serious language toward the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry earlier this week. Talking about military technical solutions that can be used to enhance Russian security, NUPI’s senior researcher, Jacob Godzimirsky, tells Netavisen.
– But the way it is mentioned and talked about in the Russian media may indicate that the population is preparing for a diplomatic solution. Opinion polls in Russia also indicate that Russians do not want an armed conflict with Ukraine. Some believe a process may be imminent, while others believe Putin is doing it to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position toward the West, Godzimirsky says.
– Dmitriy Kiselyov is referred to as Putin’s mouthpiece. What is the purpose of making such a statement now?
He has made similar statements before and is known for such harsh statements. In 2014, he said that Russia could put the United States in radioactive ash if the Americans tried something. Presenting a weekly news program on the Rossija 1 TV channel, it is one of the most important propaganda programs in Russia. Everyone who has followed the Russia discussion knows that he has a tendency to exaggerate. You don’t have to take it seriously, says Godzimirsky.
Russia has five long-term goals
Putin has put forward a long list of sandwiches with demands, in the form of proposals for new security agreements with NATO and the United States, in which he demanded, among other things, a halt to NATO expansion and the alliance’s activity in Eastern Europe. mini. One of the main demands is that Ukraine not join NATO. Among other things, Putin accuses NATO of military provocations near Ukraine.
The Russian president said during Putin’s annual press conference, which was held today on Christmas Eve, that his “American partners” had agreed to start a dialogue on the proposals in the new year.
Read also: Heitfeldt threatens Putin with sanctions
Godzimirsky says Russia has five long-term goals.
– The most important goal is the survival and stability of the regime – to retain power. The second goal is that they want to recognize their status as a superpower with great capabilities in the form of having many nuclear weapons. The third is that they are concerned about a security barrier and an area of interest around Russia, such as that Ukraine should not be part of NATO expansion, he says.
The fourth is that Russia is also interested in having positive framework conditions for economic development, and therefore it needs partners such as the European Union. Fifth, it is concerned with having international influence and an important role in international institutions to use to serve its own interests, such as the veto it enjoys as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Then they can stop all decisions that go at the expense of their own interests, says Godzimirsky.
Some analysts say Putin’s goal is to divide Europe and re-establish the Soviet Union. What do you think of this analysis?
– It gets a little simplified. Russia has indicated many times its desire to remove American influence from Europe. It is much easier for them to associate with “equal” great powers in Europe without the intervention of the United States. So they want to weaken the US role in Europe. Therefore, they also demanded that the United States withdraw all its nuclear weapons from Europe. More generally, one could say that the way to make Russia a great power again is to weaken the ability of others to influence Russia. Godzimirsky says that NATO is a kind of stated goal for Russia, and has been for many years.
Invasion cannot be completely ruled out
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that at the time of writing, 122,000 Russian soldiers are deployed within 200 km of the Ukrainian border. In addition, another 143,500 soldiers are within 400 km of the border, writes the Ukrainian website Ukrinform.
– Do you think that there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Godzimirski?
– I want to say it like this. I hope you don’t. He says, but you can’t completely rule it out, either.
Could a war between Ukraine and Russia lead to a nuclear conflict?
Nuclear weapons is an advanced topic. Russia in recent years has sent signals that it may be willing to use nuclear weapons in a war to de-escalate the situation if things do not go well for it on the ground. That is, they detonate a relatively small nuclear charge somewhere to send a signal that they have additional nuclear weapons insurance, and that if the other party doesn’t meet their requirements, they will escalate with more nuclear weapons. They have many nuclear weapons in their nuclear arsenal. This is called nuclear de-escalation. There has been a lot of controversy over this, says Godzimirski.
Russia threatens nuclear de-escalation, but it also knows that some kind of nuclear de-escalation can lead to the West retaliating with nuclear weapons, and then you can have an almost unstoppable downward spiral. Many believe that Russia may be able to do so. But many believe it will set off a downward spiral in which no one has any prerequisites to say where it ends. If you end up with a large exchange of nuclear attacks, the world will simply become an uninhabitable place, he says.
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