The most important European indices recorded increases of more than 10% and up to 20% last year. The PSI rose 11.7%, and on Wall Street, the S&P 500 was near historic highs. Next year, markets are pointing to a significant impact from inflation and central bank monetary policy.
The year that has now ended was one of intense rallies in European stock markets, and investors were conveying positive, albeit moderate, sentiment regarding the outlook for 2024.
The basis is the fact that the economic slowdown is accompanied by a slowdown in inflation, on an annual basis, across Europe and the United States, based on data from recent months, according to BA&N's analysis of the global economic outlook. Markets for the new year.
The Lisbon Stock Exchange was no exception, responsible for gains of around 11.7% between January 1 and December 31, 2023. However, it lagged behind the overall trend of European markets. For example, the overall Stoxx 600 rose 12.7%, while France's CAC 40 added 16.5%. It was followed by the DAX 30 (Germany) with 20.3%, the IBEX 35 (Spain) with 22.8%, and the FTSE MIB (Italy) with 28.0%, the largest increase among European major markets.
On the other side of the Atlantic, in the United States, the rises were even more pronounced, with the S&P 500 rising 24.2% to 4,769.8 points, very close to its historic highs in terms of share price. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 rose 53.8%, making this the best year for the technology index in the entire 21st century.
The outlook for 2024 is positive, but always guided by moderation, given the existing insecurity factors. Among them, there is the possibility that central banks will appear conservative when it comes to lowering interest rates, after adopting a policy of strong increases. In this sense, the Fed has indicated three cuts of 25 basis points in 2024, while the ECB insists that it is too early to address this issue.
At the same time as investors wait for inflation to continue to slow (at least to the 2% mark), as well as interest rate cuts, a global recession remains a possibility and, of course, will put strong pressure on the major economies. Indicators. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation is uncertain, as wars in Eastern Europe, between Russia and Ukraine, and in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, create instability scenarios.
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