“The European Commission’s forecasts show that the macroeconomic and budget scenario presented by the government in its 2022 state budget proposal is credible and that the Portuguese can have confidence in the future.”It can be read in a communiqué sent to the newsroom by the Ministry of Finance.
The Brussels forecast “also confirms that the context of political uncertainty we are experiencing has not arisen from fiscal problems or a public financial crisis as it has in the past,” said the Minister of State and Finance.
Joao Liao also notes that the figures published by Brussels today “show that the current situation is not seen as a threat to the targets projected in the scenario presented by the government in October”.
The Ministry of Finance said in the statement that the expectations received from Brussels confirm “the prospects for a strong economic recovery in the country, in line with the estimates presented in the proposed state budget for 2022,” despite being more pessimistic.
Joao Liao’s office asserts that “European Commission estimates confirm that Portugal will grow significantly again above the eurozone in 2022, with a growth of 5.3%, 1 point. [ponto percentual] over the euro area (4.3%)”.
As for public finances, “the improvement in the European Commission’s forecast for the budget deficit is in line with the figure provided by the executive branch in the state budget proposal for 2022, which confirms the credibility of the government’s accounts.”
Regarding public debt reduction, the figures “show that Portugal is on the right path to ensuring fiscal sustainability and financial stability.”
The European Commission (EC) has improved its forecast for the growth of the Portuguese economy to 4.5% this year and 5.3% next year, estimates, however, below the government’s forecast, according to the autumn economic forecasts released today.
Brussels also expects the Portuguese deficit to reach 4.5% of GDP and public debt to reach 128.1% of GDP this year, a forecast worse than those made by the government.
On the other hand, the European executive expects the Portuguese unemployment rate to reach 6.7% this year, which is a more optimistic forecast than the government’s, and expects subsequent declines in 2022 and 2023.
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