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The International Energy Agency predicts an “unprecedented” oil surplus by 2030

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The increase in global oil supplies, “led by non-OPEC+ producers, is expected to exceed demand expectations from 2025 onwards,” driven by the United States, which is ready to pump 2.1 million barrels per day into the market, and the rest of the countries. producers on the continent.

The International Energy Agency expects an “invisible” oil surplus at the end of the current decade, due to the continued increase in production and slowing demand growth.

In “Oil 2024 – Analysis and Forecast for 2030,” the latest edition of the IEA’s annual medium-term market report, released on Wednesday, June 12, a slowdown in global oil demand growth is expected in the coming months as energy transitions advance. .

The report expects global oil demand, which averaged just over 102 million barrels per day in 2023, including biofuels, to stabilize at nearly 106 million barrels per day in 2030.

Demand will be driven by fast-growing Asian economies, led by India (transport), as well as the aviation (fuel) and petrochemical (raw materials) sectors, which are expected to increase their oil intensity in the coming years. .

The IEA says this increase will be increasingly offset by factors such as “increasing electric vehicle sales, improvements in fuel efficiency in conventional vehicles, reduced use of oil for electricity generation in the Middle East and structural economic changes.” He added, “It is expected that demand for oil in advanced economies will continue its decades-long decline, falling from nearly 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to less than 43 million barrels per day in 2030.”

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In fact, this would be the lowest value since 1991, if we exclude the pandemic years.

At the same time, the increase in global oil supplies, “led by non-OPEC+ producers, is expected to exceed demand expectations from 2025 onwards,” driven by the United States of America, which is preparing to pump 2. million barrels per day into the market and by other producers. On the continent. Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana are expected to receive an additional 2.7 million barrels per day.

Total supply capacity is expected to rise to nearly 114 million barrels per day by 2030, pushing unused capacity to levels never seen outside the oil crisis. [pandemia de] Covid-19,” says AIE.

This situation could have “serious consequences” for oil markets, including the producing economies of OPEC and other countries, as well as the US shale industry.

The report's forecast concludes that as approved exploration projects dry up later this decade, “capacity growth will slow and then stagnate among major non-OPEC+ producers.” However, if companies continue to approve additional capacity, which is already in the design stage, “an additional 1.3 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ production capacity could become operational by 2030.”

“The forecasts in this report, based on the latest data, show a significant oversupply in this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to ensure that their strategies and business plans are prepared for the changes that are occurring,” Fatih warns. Birol, executive director of AIE, in a statement.

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