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The Portuguese economy is expected to fall out of the top 50 by 2038, according to a British think tank.

The Portuguese economy is expected to fall out of the top 50 by 2038, according to a British think tank.

CEBR forecast is not great for Portugal. “We estimate that the annual GDP growth rate will slow to an average of 1.8% between 2024 and 2028.”

The Portuguese economy ranked 37th in the world economies table Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) from the United Kingdom, will arrive in 2038 at number 53, outside the top 50.

According to CEBR’s work, “In the four years leading up to 2020, Portugal became less competitive in terms of its regulatory environment, with the country falling to 39th place in the World Bank’s 2020 Ease of Doing Business Index. In 2016, the country’s ranking was 27th place.

According to the report, Portugal – classified as a “high-income country” – has a purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita of $45,227 in 2023. “The country saw its growth slow by 6.7% in 2022.” To 2.1% in 2023.”

On the other hand, inflation rates “rose” – in the words of the European Center for Economic Research – to an estimated 5.3% this year. “For this very reason, the economy is facing a crisis trade off The stagflationary relationship between growth and rising prices. The estimated growth in consumer prices throughout 2023 exceeded the average inflation rate over the ten years to 2021, which was 0.8%.

Also in 2023, according to CEBR Analytics, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points to “the still low level of 6.6%.” “However, the tightness in the labor market was not enough to drive stronger economic growth in 2023.”

The good news is about public debt. “Public debt as a proportion of GDP decreased to an estimated 108.3% in 2023, compared to 113.9% in 2022. This reflects the successful attempts made by the government [português] To attack the debt problem caused by the pandemic,” the work of the British think tank indicates.

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The government must also have managed the accounts firmly over the past year, the CEBR highlights. “In reality, the deficit should have been a mere 0.2% of GDP. This is despite the economic and financial challenges generated by the pandemic and increasing global pressures on the cost of living.” He concludes, “Although fiscal consolidation will be necessary in the future, However, difficult circumstances require the government to spend more than is recommended in the short term.”

However, despite this situation, Climate prediction CEBR is not great for Portugal. “We estimate that the annual GDP growth rate will slow to an average of 1.8% between 2024 and 2028. Over the subsequent nine years, CEBR forecasts suggest that the economy will grow by up to 1.9% on average each year. Over the next 15 years, Portugal is expected to gradually fall in the global economic league table, from 49th in 2023 to 53rd in 2038.

China tops economies in 2038 and UK grows

The British economy will approach the German economy and increase its superiority over France, and should provide the best performance over the next fifteen years among the major European economies.

Views are Think tank British Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which recently released a new long-range outlook. According to CEBR, the UK's GDP is expected to grow by between 1.6% and 1.8% until 2038, figures that contribute to cementing the sixth position among the world's largest economies.

China is expected to become the world's leading power in 2038, he predicts research Center, Followed by the United States and India.

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The World Economic Association table, which analyzes the development of GDP in various world economies in the short, medium and long term, places Japan in fourth place, Germany in fifth place, and the United Kingdom in sixth place. In the year under review, the latest CEBR forecast, France fell one place to seventh, followed by Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Indonesia, Italy, Australia, Russia, Mexico, Spain, and increasingly followed by Turkey.

According to these forecasts, the Indonesian economy will thus overtake the Spanish economy, which will move to sixteenth place in the CEBR table. The Spanish economy will therefore be excluded from the group of fifteen largest in the world.

In terms of population, the United Nations estimates that Indonesia's population will continue to increase to more than 320 million people in 2050, The Economista reported. For Turkey, projections indicate growth exceeding 95 million people in 2050. In the case of Spain, the opposite is true. According to the United Nations, the Spanish population will soon begin to decline, falling to less than 40 million people as of 2075.

“The isolated figure is a bit anecdotal, but if we analyze it in depth (looking back), we can see the drama that the Spanish economy has been experiencing since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. More than two decades of losses experienced” Resources were concentrated in sectors with low productive and non-tradable/exportable (during the bubble years, significant resources were allocated to housing construction) which were not used to implement a change in the real growth model,” the Economista reported in an article regarding the publication of the list, highlighting that “the positive side is that “The Spanish economy is now more competitive and able to grow without causing disruptions.”

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The period 2004-2007 was one of the golden periods for Spain, which became the eighth largest economy in the world. However, in the last two decades, growth in Spain has been practically non-existent, notes the Spanish newspaper, referring to the financial crisis, sovereign debt and recession caused by Covid-19.