The war in Ukraine: – Could have prevented the invasion

Last week, Hans Peter Midton told daily newspaper The war in Ukraine could certainly have been avoided if NATO had acted differently. Medton is a former Norwegian defense attache in Ukraine. Now he gets partial support from Klaus Matissen, the former Danish military attache to Ukraine.

– If you had responded earlier, primarily diplomatically, you would probably have prevented the invasion. However, I consider it to the point that it would have been a difficult task of course because Russia is very determined to solve what it considers the “Ukrainian problem,” Matisin tells Dagbladet and continues:

– these two Draft agreement from Russia to the United States and NATO In December he showed that finding sustainable compromises would not be an easy task. Russia was apparently willing to overlook the great challenges that the invasion had brought, both militarily and politically.

Matissen adds:

These are challenges that are now becoming clearer and clearer, which have proven crucial to the relationship between Russia and democratic and liberal states – and perhaps Russia’s future fate.

– signs of weakness

The former Danish defense attache believes there is no doubt that Russia has viewed the Western reaction in recent years as unimportant and marked by difficulties in achieving political agreement in both the EU and NATO.

– This is something that Russia clearly considers a sign of weakness, and therefore of course it did not worry about it in connection with the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is believed to have miscalculated in the run-up to February 24, including regarding the willingness of Western countries to support Ukraine.

Of course, Russia did not expect to end up in a situation where the support of Western countries, politically, economically, and militarily, significantly prevents it from achieving its goals in Ukraine in a relatively short time.

– Although the biggest surprise for Russia was Ukraine’s political and military capacity and willingness to defend itself.

Reactions against Russia

Hans Peter Midton, a former Norwegian defense attache, believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have dared to wage war against Ukraine had NATO been clear in its dealings with Russia and had reacted more harshly to violations of international law.

Of course, Mathiesen says, the reaction could have been different.

– Of course, the reaction could have been different – also by showing an understanding of Russian demands. However, it is not easy to do so without compromising at the same time with the individual principles of state sovereignty and the right to self-determination, principles enshrined in the The Paris Pact of 1990.

Matissen continues:

– If we are talking about the fact that your reaction could have been stronger, then, of course, this is true. But in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, a presidential change had just taken place, with the seemingly more moderate Dmitry Medvedev seeking cooperation for a while to replace the more challenging Vladimir Putin.

Georgia and Crimea

The former Danish military attache believes that the West was not ready for confrontation at the time. In addition, it is believed that the annexation of Crimea happened too quickly for the West.

The West was neither ready nor ready for a confrontation with Russia, and wanted to bind Russia closer to itself by means of cooperation.

Matysin deals with the Crimea:

– The annexation of Crimea in 2014 happened so quickly – from February 20 to March 18 – that the West initially did not have time to respond with anything other than reactions and by forbidding Russia’s cooperation with the G8.

– Despite political debates in many countries about whether the European Union and NATO were to blame for the fact that Russia felt compelled to take this step, they responded by not recognizing the Russian annexation and then the vote violating sovereignty in Crimea.

Mathiesen adds that the EU and NATO strengthened cooperation with Ukraine after that, as well as the Baltic states and Poland.