The war in Ukraine – this is how the war could end

Since the war broke out in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Norwegian experts have warned that this is a war that could spill over and continue for a long time.

After a partial military success for Ukrainian forces, and a much weaker Russian war machine than previously thought, the war now lasted 473 days (Sunday 11 June).

Huge loss numbers

Defense Chief Erik Kristofferson estimated in January that there were 300,000 dead and wounded in the war in Ukraine.

30,000 of the dead were civilians, and Russian casualty figures began to approach 180,000.

After at least 483 children have been killed, nearly 1,000 injured, and nearly 1,500 children orphaned, more and more people are wondering how the war in Ukraine can end.

There are a number of assumptions that need to be made to answer this question. It looks like it will be a protracted war because neither side has enough forces to settle the war quickly. Ukraine does not seem to be able to liberate the country in the short term, and Russia does not have enough forces to attack large areas. It could be a low-intensity war for some time to come, it could be a protracted struggle, Lieutenant Colonel and Head of School Geir Hagen Carlsen at the Norwegian Defense College tells Dagbladet.

A completely different kind of seriousness

A number of other conflicts, such as in Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, are examples of low-intensity conflicts that have continued since the 1990s. There are conflicts that sometimes have a fairly low intensity, and then flare up again to a higher level of conflict.

– There’s a big difference. The war in Ukraine has a very large impact on the situation in Europe, Carlsen says, and is therefore being treated with a completely different kind of seriousness by the United States and Europe than other conflicts.

It is noteworthy that the war began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

– I don’t think Russia intends to give up, I think they will sit down and stick to the areas where they have to see if the situation will improve at some point in the future.

To end the war, the experienced presenter points out three different options.

1:- There is a real danger that there will be a protracted conflict as no clarification will be obtained in the next few years.

Political solution and security guarantees

2: – Another option is for Ukraine to regain part of the territories lost to Russia. The most difficult part is the Crimea, because this is the part that Russia values ​​\u200b\u200bthe most, and therefore it will go to great lengths to defend it. Geographically, Crimea is difficult to reach, Carlsen says.

He notes that it is easier to recapture the area around Donbass, but after many years of war, this is a less important area.

– The residents who stayed there are very pro-Russian. So basically you leave the areas to the south towards the Sea of ​​Azov. Which domains they eventually take will be determined by what happens on Earth.

The possibility of a way out of such a conflict is an agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

– Perhaps Ukraine will give up the parts it does not control, and they will receive a security guarantee from NATO. Without such a security guarantee, this conflict will not end, because the Russians will return later, he says.

He believes that Ukraine could get NATO membership or what is often called the “Israeli solution”.

Report the counterattack: – Impressed

It is a solution in which bilateral guarantees are given so that it becomes clear that attacking Ukraine would be like attacking the United States or the West. If someone attacks Israel now, he will get military support from the United States. Carlsen says this is something everyone knows

collapse in Russia

3: – The third solution is a kind of collapse from the Russian side. It can come in many ways, but one of the scenarios is that it can come out on top because the losses are too huge, and it is pointless to continue fighting. We saw it at the end of World War I where things went badly at the front, which eventually ended in revolution. I am not saying that there will be a revolution in Russia now, but it may lead to the desertion of soldiers.

It may also be due to the change of power in the Kremlin, where the internal political power struggle becomes more important than the war in Ukraine.

– We could also witness destabilization with protests among the population in the streets. In the worst case, this would spread to resource-rich regions, which would then stop sending money to Moscow and soldiers for the war.

– It can be military at the front, in the political leadership, on the streets of Russia and in the regions. If this situation arises, he adds, these elements can reinforce each other. But let me point out that today there are no signs of collapse in Russia, so this is likely to be far in the future, says Geir Hagen Carlsen.

Jacob M. Gudzimirski, a Russia researcher at NUPI and one of the country’s leading Norwegian experts, envisions the next solutions to war.

says Jacob M.

Positive view from the Ukrainian and Western side:

– Ukraine was able to recover all the areas that Russia seized from it, and then enter into negotiations with Russia to end the war. This requires Russia to admit defeat. This is the positive angle that we see from Ukraine and from the Western perspective.

negative:

– Russia managed to mobilize more soldiers and equipment in order to expel Ukraine from Donbass and the surrounding areas. Gudzimirsky says that Russia manages through negotiations to pressure Ukraine to recognize these regions as part of Russia.

The last option he envisions is a stalemate in the war.

– There are no major changes so that there will be neither victory nor defeat. There was talk of a Ukrainian counter-attack and a Russian advance, but there hasn’t been much movement in the past three or four months except in Bakhmut.

If seen from Moscow, this image would be the complete opposite.

– It can become a frozen conflict that has been held for many years. Then you should try to appeal to the will to end this carnage, says Godzimirski.

Intelligence: – Failed attempt

He believes the future is about how Russia manages to mobilize more resources, and what Ukraine will bear in terms of loss of human life and infrastructure.

These two points will intersect at one point or another, but no one knows when that will happen. Thus, this becomes a very stalemate situation, says Jacob M. Godzimirsky.