The war in Ukraine – what now, Putin?

After Wagner’s armed group headed for Moscow, there were many who feared that Putin might lose power, or that Prigozhin’s days were numbered.

Vladimir Putin is still in power, and no one knows what Prigozhin’s future looks like or how long it will last.

The situation is very uncertain and many are wondering whether Putin will tolerate the betrayal in the long term. The question is how far Putin will crack down on the group. For now, the commander and the soldiers are given amnesty, says Tom Rosth, associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy (FHS).

He believes that Moscow must deal with the group because Wagner’s soldiers must be demobilized or included in the regular forces, or alternatively follow their leader to Belarus.

On Thursday, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stated that Prigozhin is in Russia, specifically St Petersburg. The Kremlin also said on Thursday that it had no interest in following in the Wagner leader’s footsteps.

– still an important piece

– Prigozhin claims that no one is subject to defense contracts. They have ongoing contracts with Wagner which are more lucrative. Therefore, it is not yet clear what happened to about 15,000 Wagner soldiers. Prigozhin is still an important part of Russia’s war game, Rosth says.

The legendary mercenaries of the Wagner Group have so far played a central role in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, the Russian government denied any connection with the Wagner Group. For the Russian state, the secrecy of the Wagner Group was a key point: mercenaries could be used in conflict zones and war without being directly traced back to the Kremlin.

sunk into the ground

A monster created by Putin

Now the situation has turned upside down.

– Wagner and other mercenaries were useful tools for Moscow. This is a monster created by Putin, who is now turning on its creator, says Roseth.

Putin has become politically vulnerable, and one of the many questions being asked is how he will handle the situation with the Wagner-Prigozhin group.

When the Wagner group moved hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia, to many it seemed a sign that Prigozhin had support in Moscow among key figures in Russia’s defense or Federal Security Service (FSB).

– When Prigozhin chooses to direct his campaign towards Moscow, there are two possible reasons for this. But first it must be made clear that this is Russia, and there is a lot that we don’t know, and a lot that looks like something other than what it actually is. One is that Prigozhin may have been told that he would be shot if he continued towards Moscow. The second is that he has seen no sign of support from potential collaborators in the Kremlin, says Geir Hagen Carlsen, lieutenant colonel and director of the Norwegian Defense Academy.

– Maybe it was a bloodbath in Moscow

He believes that Wagner would have been stopped before they reached the capital anyway, and that it is in everyone’s best interests to come up with a solution before it develops into a bloodbath so gruesome.

Bombing Wagner and Prigozhin outside Moscow would look very bad. If Putin felt threatened, he would have done so, because he could not have let them waltz into the city of Moscow, says Carlsen.

Internally in Russia, Putin can defend what happened through censored media, but he has a hard time standing up to the Russian elite.

– They see that the once powerful boss, who has long played people against each other, is now about to lose complete control. This is why it is so important to lead by example and prove that Prigozhin’s attack is dealt with rigorously and has consequences, he says.

– a vivid reminder of Putin’s impotence

Thought Iver B. Neumann, a Russian researcher and director of the Fridtjof Nansen Research Institute (FNI), believes that sending Prigozhin to Belarus was a cunning ruse by Vladimir Putin.

– Since Prigozhin is in Belarus, which is an independent state on paper, it means that no one can demand his immediate removal. If Prigozhin lives for the long haul, he is a vivid reminder of Putin’s impotence. None of us would like such a comparison, but if there is one person in particular who loves this dearly, it has to be Putin. As I see it, Prigozhin must be removed.

– Is there a danger to Putin related to this?

– No, he would probably be portrayed as a business if he did, that’s how things are with Russian enemies. If he threatened Prigozhin now without doing anything about it, he would only look weak. Says Iver B. Newman said that in classic Russian fashion he was expected to be killed or sent to Siberia.

Condemns the Wagner Group

Prigozhin pest

Putin’s regime has shown skill and ingenuity in its ways of getting rid of political opponents throughout its presidency.

– In this case, the most elegant way to remove Prigozhin’s scourge would be to find a charge of corruption against him. The FSB began raiding Wagner’s offices, and if they couldn’t find anything to hunt them down, they would make up a good reason to stop them. It’s the simplest and least controversial way to do this, says Geir Hagen-Carlsen.

There is still great doubt whether Prigozhin acted on his own initiative, or if he had the support of other, more powerful people.

– Was this a rebellion on the part of Prigozhin, in which he hoped for support from the Russian security service and the elite, or was it an attempted coup in which the same forces of power used Prigozhin as a tool. Regardless of this, he was left alone in the end, he says.

There is no active support from the Kremlin

By extension, Carlsen notes that there was no one in the Kremlin who actively supported Prigozhin. On the contrary, everyone sat quietly in their seats, and there were reports of several Russian elites who had taken their private planes into the air at exceptional speed and left Moscow.

– The oligarchs and influential people see that the economy is doing poorly, and the money they stole is lost or frozen. These groups question Putin’s ability to handle the situation constructively. At the same time, these people have forged such strong bonds with the president that they are stuck to the same glue as the regime if things go wrong, he says.

Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China, which the oligarchs are not very excited about, but which they have to do now.

– There’s a great deal in this process that we still don’t know for sure, but we can be pretty sure there are a lot of people looking over their shoulders these days. Carlsen says Putin has a long tradition of cracking down on critics, not least traitors, with brute force.

– sends their soldiers to their death

Paranoia in Moscow

He believes there could be major purges, regardless of whether or not they are part of these plans. Perhaps this leads to an enormous degree of paranoia in Moscow during the day.

Putin’s problem now is that he too has to look over his shoulders – in all directions. There is great discontent in Moscow, and this is clearly the most difficult period for him as president, says Geir-Hagen-Carlsen.

Many Russian Dagbladet experts have spoken of their belief that the hawks in Moscow are busy during the day.

The battle to succeed Putin is in full swing. This means that there is likely to be no going back for Putin. This is not the beginning, but the continuation of the end for him. One could talk about Prigozhin being a traitor, but others are beginning to take sides. If the wolves were running around, how would he be able to get out of this. Then I think the playoffs are underway, says Ever B. Newman.

Putin emphasized that there is hardly any form of political opposition in Russia. It also makes it completely unclear who could succeed Putin as president.

The closest we come to a proper political opposition in Russia is Alexei Navalny. He had decided to fight Putin, and returned to Russia despite showing every sign of its outcome. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who directs the Open Russia project from abroad, has not yet gained much momentum. Newman says this supports the fact that one must be physically present to participate in the political game.

– Prigozhin could continue his campaign to succeed Putin, which is clearly what he is trying to do. Or he can get away from hell. I would recommend him to Bali, and I think he’s becoming very well known there too. Being in Belarus is frankly life threatening. But if he wants to join the battle to succeed Putin, he must be at home, it’s that simple. Newman says he clearly hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.