The war in Ukraine: – You should have received the F-16 a year ago

Since Russia’s attack on February 24, 2022, Ukraine has asked Western allies to provide it with fighter jets. The West was reticent, but in May, US President Joe Biden announced that Ukrainian pilots would be allowed to learn to fly US F-16 fighter jets.

You must have control over the airspace

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Valeriy Zalogny believes the counterattack is being hampered by a lack of sufficient weapons, from fighter jets to artillery ammunition.

Yuriy Sak, advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, stated that the country wants 40-50 F-16s, According to Politico. According to Sack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will raise the issue of combat aircraft at the NATO summit in Vilnius next week.

– No one in the West would start such an attack without controlling the airspace, but Ukraine is still waiting for the F-16s that the allied countries promised to deliver, he said.

He is backed by former Defense Minister Sverre Dessen, who questions whether it would be possible for Ukraine to succeed in a war-changing offensive, without air superiority.

If the answer is no, the Ukrainians will probably wait until they also have modern Western fighter jets before launching an offensive that can make a decision on the battlefield, says Sverre Dessen, now a chief researcher at Norwegian Defense. Research Institute (FFI).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims they will get a “large number” of F-16s. However, it is uncertain when these might be in place.

Ukraine’s defense leadership must weigh the political need to launch a strong offensive now against what might be a better military solution, namely, waiting to build up more departments and get the weapons they need for a larger and more ambitious offensive later. , says Ambassador Dessen.

frequency result

Many have called for the planes to arrive too late in connection with the attack launched by Ukraine this summer.

– If I had been more advanced and had given planes to Ukraine earlier, it would have had a better geopolitical situation. The relatively poor starting position we’re in right now is the result of a lot of indecision and indecision, says Arne Bord-Dalhough, a retired first lieutenant and former chief of the defense staff.

The normal training time to operate the F-16 should be 18 to 24 months. Many experts believe that Ukrainian pilots could be ready in four to six months. But several Norwegian Dagbladet experts have spoken out to point out that more than just pilot training is needed.

Comprehensive logistics

– Maybe four to six months minimum when they also have to master all the sensors and weapon systems of the plane. But you also have to have extensive logistics with mechanics, parts and workshops to keep the planes running. Dessen says this will necessarily take some time.

Expert: – It sounds funny

He believes that Ukraine would have been in a very different position had it received long-range missiles and fighter jets earlier in the war. No matter what we do now, the fighters will not run now, and this will stop anyway when the autumn rains come.

The F-16 will not be able to affect this attack. I understand that Ukraine will have to wait until it has combat aircraft ready to operate, but the problem is that it is a very long way in the future. It will take several months, so in fact they won’t be able to go on the offensive again until next spring, says Arne Burd-Dalhough.

Ukraine then faces the same problems with the land having to be drained so it can maneuver tanks and other necessary equipment on the ground.

In fact, unless completely unusual weather conditions occur, these planes will not operate until the spring or summer of next year in support of the offensive, says Dalhough.

You need more than just fighter jets

There is also tension related to how different these aircraft could make in the war against Russian forces.

Airplanes alone are not critical. Part of the problem is that Russia’s air defense is very good. If one is going to operate large fighter aircraft formations on the Ukrainian side, Dessen says, one needs more than just fighter aircraft.

In addition to the F-16s, they need aircraft that support fighter jets in keeping Russian air defenses off electronically with so-called jammers. They might also need homing missiles to an active radar, forcing the Russians to turn off their radars periodically so they don’t reveal their location.

This helps weaken Russia’s air defense and gives Ukrainian planes the opportunity to attack Russian planes and targets on the ground. Therefore, it will take some time before Ukraine gains the necessary air superiority if an attack can decide the war, says Dessen.

– Do they depend on the land that has dried up to be able to use the necessary forces on the ground?

– The timing of the offensive, which will also involve the air force, depends on whether you can count on everything that is needed to be ready already this fall, in my opinion, this is questionable, says Dessen.

He also noted that a final decision has not yet been made, especially from the American side, regarding the donation of the aircraft themselves.

– It is unlikely that everything will be ready until next year, and then the question arises whether a decisive offensive can be launched before or after the arrival of spring. It can be a winter attack when the ground freezes, otherwise they have to wait for the ground to dry after the spring solution.

Russia’s performance was below par

Only when the Ukrainians have a strong air force and well-trained ground forces with modern Western equipment can they carry out the kind of combined air/ground operations that we see in the West as a prerequisite for a breakthrough that can decide war.

– Then, of course, there is another doubt that must be taken into account in the calculation. When we talk about what is required to succeed in such an offensive, we assume that the Ukrainians are facing a competent opponent. However, we must ask ourselves whether Russians qualify for such a classification. They’ve proven to be significantly less performers than we expected, says Dessen.

– Russian collapse

It is believed that even with the limited offensive operations that the Ukrainians are now conducting, they can lead to the collapse of Russia. The Russian fighting spirit may collapse, and the resistance will collapse.

– In this case, it could open the door to an opportunistic Ukrainian exploitation of the situation, and then a military breakthrough would be possible even with the basic requirements that exist today. We can’t write off that possibility, says Dessen.

– But we don’t know for sure how good the Ukrainians are in attack?

– No, but it was shown before in the attacks in both Kharkiv and Kherson that they have great capabilities to conduct offensive operations even with the organization they have, and without modern Western military equipment.

I think their ability to carry out the kind of offensive operations they’re doing now is good enough. It’s also better anyway than the Russians, who don’t seem to be able to pull off nearly anything, says Sverre Dessen.

Shortage of crew

Thus, it may seem that the war in Ukraine may enter a phase in which the front will stabilize over the winter.

There is no indication that the Russians have the ability to launch offensive operations this winter either. They may have figured they should stick to the important terrain they have, and the question is whether they have enough crews to handle this, Arne Bård Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.