The first Russian operation to invade the Ukrainian capital and major cities, and to force regime change, failed, writes the influential ISW think tank, Institute for the Study of War, in its daily report on the conflict.
The strategy behind the attacks was to carry out “airborne and mechanized” operations to invade Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and other major Ukrainian cities in order to force a change of government in Ukraine, the US think tank wrote.
Airborne operations are those that are performed with aircraft and in the air, and mechanical operations are those that come with armor on the ground.
This process has reached its climax. Russian forces continue to make limited progress in some parts of the country to continue the operation, but it is highly unlikely that they will be able to reach the target in this way, writes ISW.
Ambassador Diesen, a general and former chief of defense and chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, says the entire Russian strategy has so far failed.
Especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country. On the southern front along the Black Sea, the Russians made even greater advances. It has been very poor planning in terms of both supplies and command and control, he says and continues:
The Russians expected to succeed in a short time and it was largely improvised. Then the Ukrainians resisted much more than expected.
It stops at a dead end
The chief researcher believes that there is likely to be a stalemate in the war. It can severely infect the civilian population.
The Russians do not seem to have the ability to resume major offensive operations. In that case, they would have to undergo a more extensive reorganization, with replenishment and compensation for the loss of both soldiers and gear before they could resume the ground offensive.
Dessen believes at this point that they will intensify the bombing of the major cities to weaken the Ukrainian resistance as much as possible.
– It will mainly affect the civilian population, and will lead to more deaths and injuries, he says and continues:
– Then the question is what do the Ukrainians manage to do in the meantime and how much support they receive from the West. But in any case, the Ukrainians will not have the opportunity to beat the Russians and expel them from Ukraine. This means that the fronts may harden over time.
British intelligence wrote in its latest report that it appears as if the Russians are changing strategy. The plan is now the so-called war of attrition.
This war will likely involve “the relentless use of weapons, resulting in an increased number of wounded civilians, the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, and a growing humanitarian crisis”.
Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bord Dalhaug told Dagbladet that he was just waiting for the Russians to change this tactic.
– It is a very uncomplicated war, with terrorist bombings and terrorist activities to put pressure on the leadership in Kyiv.
This move was made to protect military equipment, Dallhog explains, and that you can protect everything from tanks to artillery and crews in this way. He believes that the fist indicates that the Russians do not intend to surrender immediately.
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