Danish intelligence warns if Putin rules against defeat: it could lead to nuclear war

He writes, “A misunderstanding in the Russian army could lead to an escalation of the war.” The Danish Armed Forces Intelligence Service, FE, in a new report.

He wants to control all of Ukraine

According to Danish military experts, the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine and the annexation of other parts of the country show that President Putin has the will to continue even if he does not achieve his strategic goals at the beginning of the war.

The report stated that “Russia’s goals in the war have not changed, but it is now more likely that the immediate goal is to preserve and strengthen the annexed regions, and then continue to invade and control the rest of Ukraine.”

No one knows what the response of NATO and the USA will be, but it will probably be strong

Even more troubling is the warning that Putin’s regime may be about to cross red lines to use nuclear weapons.

No one knows what NATO’s response will be, but US President Joe Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have warned Russia in the strongest possible terms.

NATO is traditionally superior to Russia, but a nuclear war would have disastrous consequences for Europe, not least for Russia.

– Only the use of nuclear weapons will prevent an unacceptable Russian defeat

If Russia continues to lose on the battlefield and is expelled from the occupied territories, the threat of nuclear weapons will increase. Especially if Crimea and Donetsk are restored.

Read all about the war in Urkaina

“If that happens, there is a risk that Russia will conclude that only the use of nuclear weapons will prevent an unacceptable Russian defeat,” reads the report from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, FE.

What could also lead to the use of nuclear weapons and a subsequent nuclear war is if Russian leaders misjudge the situation and issue orders, which in turn can lead to a forceful response from NATO, which also puts its finger on the trigger if one of the member states is at war.

– This misunderstanding can lead to an escalation of the crisis

“The risk increases that someone lower in the Russian hierarchy might misunderstand and overreact to military activities in a NATO country. This misunderstanding could lead to an escalation of the crisis.”

Like the Norwegian experts in military strategy, Danish intelligence believes that Russia is trying to wage a war of attrition. This will happen through military mobilization, artillery superiority, and attacks on civilian infrastructure and targets.

“They are trying to exhaust the Ukrainian forces and intimidate the country’s population. In this way, Russia wants to force Ukraine to accept peace on Russia’s terms,” ​​he added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected Russia’s demands for a ceasefire. Moreover, Ukraine fears that Putin will use the ceasefire to regroup and prepare for new attacks.

– However, everything can change

FE now warns of the risk that Russia will conclude that only the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons will be able to avoid an unacceptable Russian defeat.

But an exit with NATO will remain elusive, as Russia then risks being militarily crushed.

“It is unlikely that the Russian leadership will want to provoke a direct military conflict with NATO. However, everything can change if Russia finds itself in a situation where the country’s leadership concludes that NATO’s actions pose a threat to Russia’s fundamental strategic interests, ”he said, one of the conclusions given. in the report.

Finland and Sweden could be threatened with nuclear weapons

According to the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, Russia is likely to threaten to use nuclear weapons against targets in Sweden and Finland in the near future.

But as long as Russia has deployed large portions of its weapons and forces in Ukraine, it is still seen as demanding that Russia carry out a large, coordinated military offensive against the Nordic and Baltic states.