From Macron’s resignation and Le Pen’s victory to the end of Brexit: these are the black swans of 2023 – Mercados

Saxo Bank economists have set out their usual improbable forecasts – or black swans – for the coming year, continuing a tradition that has lasted for more than 20 years. This is, as the Danish bank explains, an exercise with ten possible scenarios, although not necessarily probable.

For the next year, the bank puts on the table, among the set of unexpected possibilities, the departure of French President Emmanuel Macron from the Elysee Palace, giving way to the leader of the far right, Marine Le Pen.

The document, which was issued this Tuesday, also stipulates the possibility of the oil-exporting countries and their allies (OPEC +), as well as China and India, putting an end to the era of the dollar, abandoning the International Monetary Fund and adopting a common reserve currency, as an alternative to the green note.

In this year’s report, there is still room for a “reset” of the Japanese financial system and the return of the United Kingdom to the European Union.

The term “black swan” gained prominence in literature in 2007, when Lebanese Nassim Taleb, a professor at New York University, wrote a book called “The Black Swan,” describing a black swan as a very rare and improbable event. . , with a significant impact on the social, political and financial system if implemented.