No adjustments to interest rates are expected, “but they may signal the first cut at their next meeting in June,” believes Ebori Managing Director – Executive Summary

This week will see two important economic events on the calendar, competing for investors' attention, with the US inflation report on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

“Regarding the first, the monthly reading, especially in the core sub-index, will be key, and a 0.1% deviation from the expected number could move the markets. The ECB is unanimously expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but it may signal the first cut interest rate at its next meeting in June.

Ibori also shows that inflation in the Eurozone continues to slow towards the ECB's target and that the deflation trend has not yet shown any signs of stagnation, as it has in the USA. “We draw attention to the fact that this US inflation cycle preceded the European one by about six months, but even so the news so far should be satisfactory for the ECB, they stress.

Experts also confirm that they expect “strong indications of this.” [o BCE] He will cut interest rates by 0.25% at the next meeting in June.”

Regarding currencies, the US dollar had a “surprisingly weak reaction to the March employment report.” David Brito explains that the most significant fluctuations occurred in currencies linked to raw materials, such as the Norwegian krone, the Australian dollar, and most Latin American currencies, which continue to rise due to rising prices of raw materials, especially oil.

“Investor sentiment has turned positive, as economic news from China and the Eurozone are starting to show improvement, but the resulting delay in interest rate cut expectations prevents further gains in risk assets,” the Ebury Managing Director highlighted.