The war in Ukraine: – Firing 26,000 shells daily

– Ammo, ammo and more ammo.

This was the clear call from Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov when he arrived at the meeting of EU defense ministers.

– Reznikov said that our priority is air defense systems, but also ammunition, ammunition and more ammunition.

Ukraine’s need for ammunition

European Union defense ministers met in Stockholm on Wednesday to discuss how to meet Ukraine’s needs. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg asked the allies to increase their support for Ukraine, but also to fill up their stocks of weapons.

Ukraine fires an estimated 6,000 artillery shells each day, according to Western intelligence figures, while Russia fires about 20,000 each day. This corresponds to the total combined European production for one month.

– Ukraine has a constant need for artillery shells, and consumption is clearly higher than production. They want the West to deliver between 8,000 and 10,000 grenades every day so they can keep their intensity up against the Russians, says Tom Roseth, associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College.

Before the war in Ukraine, annual production in Europe was 300,000 in many types of ammunition including artillery shells, while in the United States just under 150,000 were being produced per year.

– Many countries are increasing production, and the United States is the country that can do it the most since it has a well-developed arms industry. Other countries have also decided to increase production, but it is necessary to start, says Rosth.

Production increases

In recent months, several new contracts have been written to increase production of artillery ammunition, but little of this has yet to reach war-torn Ukraine.

– Several countries have made pledges, but real contracts and money must be on the table before production begins. Røseth says it’s essential to put this in place.

Many countries have already provided a lot of ammunition and decided that they will increase production. In January, Finance Minister Trigev Slagsvold Vedom (SB) and Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gramm (Spain) announced that the government would buy artillery ammunition for NOK 2.6 billion from Nammu.

The agreement means that Nammo can produce 25,000 long-range precision artillery shells. The purchase of the grenade will go towards Norway’s military readiness, but also to be able to maintain support for Ukraine.

– It must maintain its national readiness

This news came shortly after it was learned that Norway is donating 10,000 artillery shells for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s attack on the country.

Many have given, but everyone has a pain threshold in terms of maintaining their national readiness or concerns about renewal. Tom Roseth says how much different countries have given out or have stockpiled is classified information that has not been made public because, for example, it might reveal a country’s vulnerability.

– We see that both Ukraine and Russia are firing less grenades and missiles now than they were before the war. The reason for this is because no one wants to risk running out of ammunition—they want to have a stock of a certain size as an emergency, he says.

Battle over logistics and production

Many of the sources that Dagbladet spoke of believe that this is very clear in Bakhmut, that both parties must prioritize the amount they are going to spend.

– In a protracted war like this, there is a battle of logistics and the production of ammunition, weapons and other materials. The test is the most stable over the long term, says Roseth.

Will the issue of ammunition be of decisive importance in the course of the war?

– Yes, of course, this is very important. At the start of the war, the Ukrainians had less access to weapons and ammunition than the Russians, which was compensated for when they got the Himars (artillery system). If they don’t get enough weapons and artillery, Russia will be able to exploit that to their advantage, says Roseth.

I think the wrong guy has been hired

Another important factor is the amount of artillery Ukraine has, and how much it is actually capable of producing itself.

Ukraine does not want to disclose its ammunition stocks or production, other than that it consumes much more than it produces. They are also highly vulnerable to Russian missiles against their own defense industry, which creates uncertainty about production capacity and the risk of this fallout, Tom Roseth tells Dagbladet.

The largest ammunition depot in Europe

Russia has large quantities of ammunition stored in the breakaway republic of Transnistria. This was described by many as the largest stock of ammunition in Europe, but it would be very difficult for the Russians to access this ammunition.

– I am a little unsure whether it is quite an exhaustive description that they had the largest stock of ammunition in Europe. There is some conflicting information about the size of the stock, and it is also not known how old this ammunition is. He comes from the Soviet era, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, which could mean he’s between 30 and 60 years old.

Ukrainian air defense

Ammunition is very heavy and the only way to get it out of Transnistria is by air.

– One can think of some other solution, but they don’t have possibility to ship this outside of Moldova. There are no bridge systems, and even if they did have a railway, that would be within range of what Ukrainian air defenses would be able to shoot down with missiles.

This is the opinion of retired Lieutenant General Arne Bord-Dalhough, former Chief of the Defense Staff.

Feedback: – cut

Dalhough thinks Putin might be interested in getting this munitions out if some of it is usable. But then he faces a major practical problem in getting her out of the country.

– He can’t fly it through government-run Moldova, and Russians can’t fly it over Ukrainian territory. Strictly speaking, there is very little chance of anyone getting this out of the country. This is clearly a headache for Putin, Arne Bord-Dalhough tells Dagbladet.

There is a great deal of uncertainty about the amount of weapons and ammunition that Russia has stockpiled.

Attacks with field shovels

As recently as this week, British intelligence claimed that Russian reservists were fighting field shovels due to a lack of ammunition.

The claim came from the British Ministry of Defense daily newspaper Intelligence updatewhere they were told to attack Ukrainian positions with shovels, according to NTB.

Yesterday, the message came from the Lithuanian military intelligence that Russia has enough resources to continue the war in Ukraine for two years.

– The resources that Russia currently possesses are sufficient to continue the war at the current level for two years, says the head of Lithuanian military intelligence, Eligos Polavicius.

He says support for the Russian military from countries like Iran and North Korea will also be crucial to how long the war can last.