NATO promised to process membership applications from Sweden and Finland in record speed. Just a week before the summit in Madrid, the situation appears to be at a stalemate.
Turkey asked for one A series of difficult demands on the two Scandinavian countriesespecially Sweden, if they do not have a veto.
There were a number of threats and signals, and so far neither side was shaken.
If the process does not end with the expansion of NATO, it will mean a major crisis for the defense alliance.
At the same time, Turkey has already won, says professor and expert on international politics at NTNU, Joe Jacobsen.
Turkey has two main issues, one of which is the focus on Turkey’s security concerns. They got it. Half of the world is concerned that Turkey is unfairly treated, says Jacobson, who describes Turkey as a “different country” in NATO.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has also gone so far as to admit that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s security concerns are real.
You should have something more “tangible”
In a Twitter message last week, Stoltenberg described a “constructive” conversation with Erdogan, in which they discussed, among other things, “the importance of addressing Turkey’s legitimate security concerns.”
– These are really new tones from the Secretary-General and NATO. It sends an important signal to Erdogan.
Thus, the solution to the situation can be approached, says Joe Jacobsen.
Turkey can not expect to meet all the requirements, but it also has to get something more “tangible”.
– As I see it, there are three things they can recover for this. The first is the export of arms. Jacobsen explains that the United States could be the key here.
They want American planes
In a recent interview with SVT, Kurt Volcker, a former US diplomat and NATO ambassador, noted that the agreement on the purchase of US F-35 fighter jets was stranded.
Turkey was scheduled to buy the latest aircraft, but this agreement was halted when Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 defense system. A delayed air defense system that would be difficult to integrate into NATO.
There must be better solutions for the S-400 system so that the aircraft can be purchased. Some form of a solution package, says former SVT chief diplomat, according to Aftonladettewho says at the same time that he believes in the solution.
It can be a decisive arena
Jacobsen agrees that US aircraft could be the crucial piece in the agreement between NATO and Turkey.
– But that could be a hindrance here. It’s not that simple as only President Biden can decide this. He says Congress should be involved.
The political analyst does not believe that an agreement must be reached before the summit to be held in Madrid at the end of June, but the meeting could be an important arena for the parties to come closer to each other.
It is very natural to assume that this is where the solution might come in. Not necessarily a disaster if it didn’t happen there, if both sides slipped close to each other at the same time.
It could end in a NATO crisis
At the same time, it cannot last for long, Jacobsen warns.
– There’s a window there this year. If Finland and Sweden are not ready for membership in the coming months, this crisis mood will set in.
Sweden and Finland, with their important strategic location and their modern democracies, are what Jacobson describes as “ideal member states”.
– If they do not become members of NATO, this is a disaster. If the membership application is eventually stymied, there is a real, deep crisis in NATO. It would be Russia’s dream if it got this division into NATO.
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