On Friday, Ukrainian forces resisted Russian attacks for 50 days. The war caused a massive humanitarian crisis, which resulted in heavy civilian casualties and massive destruction.
The West has supported Ukraine with weapons and defensive equipment, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has said so all along Contributions are very modest. He has pleaded with world leaders and NATO for more help To stop a common enemy.
Russia responded that the West’s involvement in the conflict could mean one Expansion of war and, at worst, nuclear war.
Diesen’s ambassador, a former general and defense minister, believes that Russia has largely succeeded in intimidating the West from going properly to the counterattack.
There are many indications, and they really raise two questions, he says.
A very big problem
The first question that Diesen points out is whether President Vladimir Putin’s threats are credible or are he deceiving.
Does he think it is possible to intimidate the West into staying abroad?
It is hard to see that Putin would gain anything from bringing the West into this conflict with the entirety of Russia’s defense on his neck in Ukraine’s troubles. That’s what challenges credibility, says Dessen.
The second question that Dessen refers to assumes that the Russian threats are credible.
“If we believe the threat is credible, we say at the same time that Putin does not respect Article 5 and does not guarantee mutual security,” says Diesen.
NATO’s Article 5 states that an attack on one member state is an attack on the entire alliance.
An attack on a NATO country would undoubtedly be a case leading to the release of Article 5. If in fact the matter is that ensuring NATO’s mutual security is not credible in Putin’s eyes, we have a very big problem with NATO that goes beyond Ukraine, the general says.
Is Putin cheating?
Diesen does not believe Putin’s threats are credible.
– I think Putin is cheating. So, we have double reason to start looking seriously at whether we should increase support for Ukraine, giving them weapons and supplies they haven’t received yet, says Dessen.
Tom Rosth, associate professor and director of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, agrees.
We may have given Russia leeway by saying that we do not want to interfere. I agree with the analyzes that we must take this fight in Ukraine now, if it does not come close, I fear, at a later stage, says Rosyth.
Very weak thinking
Former Army Chief of Staff Robert Mood said TV 2 Norway’s defensive ability in the event of an attack is “low quality”.
Diesen also notes that Norway is a country very dependent on the alliance, and believes there is an argument for providing more support to Ukraine.
– If we reject Ukrainian weapons for our security, when we are completely dependent on NATO, then I think this is a very weak justification.
Diesen believes that it may be appropriate to build Ukraine’s capacity to handle more Western weapons over time, and that Norway should contribute to this.
Norway is among the most cautious
Norway has already provided defensive equipment and weapons to Ukraine, in line with other NATO countries. However, experts believe that Norway’s contribution is very modest.
– We are among the most cautious, says Røseth.
It is believed that Norway is reluctant because of our special relationship with Russia.
– We have a balance between the situation in northern Norway where we have a relationship with Russia that we want to have peace and caution around, and then we have NATO solidarity and we contribute arms in this way, says Rosth.
He points out that arms support from the United States and the European Union as a whole is important and important for Ukraine.
There are systems that can be used easily and require less training. Rosth believes that if we in Norway have weapons to keep, there is room for opportunity for support without getting strong Russian reactions.
criticizes the West
In his daily video address, Zelensky thanked all supporters of Ukraine, while at the same time stabbing him in the West.
Over the course of the war, he said, he began to see many political leaders from a different perspective.
Zelensky believed that he saw “great generosity” from those who were not rich, and that many, who were not taken seriously by others, showed great deeds.
– At the same time, some other politicians acted as if they had no power, Zelensky said.
“Organizer. Social media geek. General communicator. Bacon scholar. Proud pop culture trailblazer.”